The Arizona Coyotes head to American Airlines Center to face the Dallas Stars, and Big D is looking to keep pace at the top of the competitive Central Division.
Dallas sports a 20-10-4 home-ice record and enters this tilt with an active 6-2 record and among the contenders in the Stanley Cup odds. Even with Arizona rebounding from a 14-game losing streak to win five of its past nine since the calendar flipped to March, it's still a huge road underdog in the NHL odds.
Here are my free NHL picks for the Coyotes vs. Stars showdown on Wednesday, March 20.
Coyotes vs Stars odds
Coyotes vs Stars predictions
The Dallas Stars have done a lot right this season, and their scoring depth and responsible defense have positioned them to take a run at the top seed in the Western Conference.
Dallas has surrendered the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.25) and ranks sixth in Corsi For percentage (52.7%) at 5-on-5. The Stars have also been respectable on special teams with a ninth-ranked 23.8 power-play percentage and an 11th-ranked 80.7 penalty-kill percentage.
The lone shortcoming has been star netminder Jake Oettinger. He missed 12 games with a lower-body injury and has posted a worrisome .891 SV% and 3.16 GAA across 22 appearances since returning in mid-January. Those numbers don’t cut it behind a contending roster, but I’m still expecting him to round back into last season’s form given his pedigree and career trajectory ahead of the 2023-24 campaign.
This would also be a good starting point for Oettinger to begin turning it around.
The Arizona Coyotes are 11-19-5 on the road and rank 24th in goals (2.28) and 23rd in xGF (2.41) per 60 minutes away from Mullett Arena. The Arizona roster doesn’t stand up against the Stars, and the Coyotes have also only beaten two playoff-bound teams on the road all season.
I’m anticipating Dallas limiting the Arizona offense by playing extra conservatively tonight. The Coyotes have also played to the Under in five of their past six games with a 6.5 total, so I’m not expecting this matchup to turn into a track meet.
My best bet: Under 6.5 goals (-112 at Pinnacle)
Coyotes vs Stars same-game parlay
Stars 3-way moneyline
Under 6.5 goals
Jason Robertson 2+ shots
Dallas is the superior team and I fully expect it to win here. As noted, the Coyotes don’t travel well, and the Stars have been tough to top on home ice. I also value Dallas righting the ship with a 4-1 home win over the Los Angeles Kings on Saturday. Arizona represents a downtick in class, and the Stars have a winning blueprint to lean on from Saturday’s tape-measuring win.
Jason Robertson is a consistent shooter with two shots or more in 16 of the past 17 games and 54 of 66 for the campaign. He’s pacing the Stars in shots and attempts per 60 minutes while skating in a top offensive role, and the Coyotes allow the fifth-most shots per game (32.9) on the road.
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Coyotes vs Stars moneyline and Over/Under analysis
There hasn’t been notable movement to this moneyline as of Wednesday morning, and I’m not expecting there to be major adjustments leading into puck drop. There is a huge statistical and talent gap between the Coyotes and Stars, and Dallas is already carrying considerable chalk.
The total is also trading at a consensus 6.5 with the Under saddled with the higher vig. Arizona and Dallas combined for seven goals in their first meeting, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a shop tested a 6.0 total. As discussed, the Stars holding the Coyotes in check is in the cards, and the Arizona team total of 2.5 is also juiced to the Under.
Coyotes vs Stars betting trend to know
The Coyotes have played to the Under in five of the past six games with a 6.5 goal total. Find more NHL betting trends for Coyotes vs. Stars.
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Coyotes vs Stars game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 20, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSW, SCRIPPS |
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