There are eight games on the NHL betting board for Sunday, including a battle between two of the top teams in the East Division as the Washington Capitals face the Philadelphia Flyers.
Both teams are looking avoid consecutive losses and oddsmakers are expecting a close contest, with the NHL betting lines opening with Philadelphia opening as a slim -120 home favorite.
Here are our best free Capitals vs. Flyers picks and predictions for Sunday, March 7, with the puck dropping at 7 p.m. ET.
Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers betting preview
Injuries
Capitals: Tom Wilson RW (Suspended), Michal Kempny D (Out).
Flyers: Philippe Myers D (Out), Morgan Frost C (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in the Flyers' last five games against teams with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs. Flyers.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe Flyers opened -136 favorites overnight at FanDuel, and this moneyline slowly made its way down to a -108 pick 'em by late this afternoon. As of 4:30 p.m. ET, ticket count is dead even, and the Capitals are taking 55 percent of money. The total opened and remains 6.5, with the price opening -110 flat and now at Under -118 on two-way action, as the Under has 54 percent of bets and the Over 51 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline pick
The Flyers are fresh off a 4-3 loss to the Penguins yesterday afternoon and have alternated wins and losses over the last four games. The Capitals are coming off a 5-1 loss to the Bruins on Friday, but prior to that defeat had won four in a row.
These teams are very close in the league standings with the Caps in ninth place with a .652 point percentage and the Flyers one spot behind them at .643. A look at the analytics, however, indicates that Washington might be the superior team: The Flyers are just 30th in the league in Fenwick For percentage, a measurement of how well they control possession.
They also rank 27th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes in 5v5 hockey while ranking 21st in xGF/60. That suggests the Flyers are due for regression since they're not consistently generating – or preventing – scoring chances.
Washington also has the advantage when it comes to special teams, with the fifth-best powerplay and 12th best penalty kill in the league. Philly ranks 18th with the man advantage and just 28th on the penalty kill.
Washington is winless in the last five meetings between these conference foes, but we think the Caps will snap that losing streak against a tired Flyers squad that is on the tail end of a back-to-back after playing on the road for an entire week.
PREDICTION: Washington ML (+100)
Over/Under pick
These teams met up once this year, combining for 11 goals in a 7-4 Flyers victory. The Flyers have been the best Over bet in the league this season, going 14-7 O/U while the Capitals have also been consistently going above the total going 13-9 O/U.
Philadelphia ranks seventh in the league in scoring with 3.33 goals per game but goalie Carter Hart has struggled. The 22-year-old had a breakthrough season in 2020 but has a 3.49 goals-against average with a save percentage of just .893 across 13 starts. He also surrendered five goals on 27 shots in his previous appearance against Pittsburgh.
Washington is ninth in the league with 3.22 GPG but has also gotten poor play between the pipes, surrendering 3.17 GPG as a team. Although No. 1 netminder Ilya Samsonov appears to be healthy after a bout with COVID-19, he's still shaking off the rust and has an .877 SV% in four games this year. Take the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 6 (-120)
Capitals vs Flyers betting card
- Moneyline Washington (+100)
- Over 6 (-120)
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