The Edmonton Oilers are riding a six-game winning streak but aren’t making things easy on bettors tonight as they are heavy -400 home favorites vs. the Columbus Blue Jackets.
This is the biggest favorite Edmonton has been all year, but with books giving us a Columbus team total of 2.5 (+100 to the Over), are oddsmakers expecting some two-way scoring tonight in a game with a total that has reached 7 in some places?
Find out my best bet for Blue Jackets vs. Oilers in my NHL betting picks and predictions.
Blue Jackets vs Oilers best odds
Blue Jackets vs Oilers picks and predictions
It’s never easy finding value on player props for the Edmonton Oilers as the top skaters are taxed heavily on their Overs — and even more so tonight as massive -400 home favorites vs. the Blue Jackets. Four separate Oilers have point totals of 1.5 tonight, which I've never seen.
The value might be on the visitors. Some books have this game at a total of 7.0 with the Blue Jackets’ team total at 2.5 paying even money for the Over. That’s a pretty good indication from the oddsmakers that Columbus is going to flirt with three goals tonight.
Patrik Laine to record a point at -152 seems awfully long to me, especially when you realize Johnny Gaudreau is -230 to record a point. Laine is the only Columbus skater averaging 1.00 points per game since the break and has six points over his last three games.
When Laine is motivated, he is one of the best goalscorers in hockey — and right now he has five goals over his last six games and a point in six of his last eight.
There is also the Connor McDavid effect which skaters use as a measuring stick to see how they rank against the best player in the world, and I could see Laine stepping up in a game that could see plenty of power-play time.
The price (-152) might scare bettors away, but if I’m pricing this at -200 and getting 48 points and over 6% of implied vs. projected value, it's just that: value.
If you’re looking for a way to boost those odds, add Gustav Nyquist Over 1.5 shots on goal (-175) with the Laine point for solid +150 odds as I think both plays are over 66% probable meaning that they should be shorter than -200.
My best bet: Patrik Laine Over 0.5 points (-152)
Looking to do some NHL betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Blue Jackets vs Oilers moneyline analysis
Bettors are dealing with some big numbers tonight in Edmonton as the Oilers are -400 home favorites. That’s an 80% implied probability to win tonight which is about as high as it gets in hockey.
The shortest Edmonton has been all season was -330 vs. Anaheim in a 4-3 loss back in December. This is just the third game all season the Oilers have been shorter than -250.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets are no stranger to being long dogs. Just in January alone, they’ve closed as +200 dogs or longer in seven of their 12 games including three games at +300 or longer.
On the season, Columbus is 4-16 SU in games of +200 odds or longer for -6.30 units (assuming one unit per bet) with that record moving to 1-3 SU in games at +300 odds or longer.
It’s not looking great for the BJs, who took a single point off the Flames Monday as +295 road dogs. But at +2.5 on the puck line for -135, it’s tough to pass that up.
Edmonton is on a six-game winning streak but has been off since Saturday and has a very easy schedule ahead of it with Chicago, Detroit, and Philadelphia on deck. One of these games is going to surprise the Oilers who finished the first three months of the season with a worse point percentage than the Red Wings.
Edmonton is 7-2-1 since the start of 2023 but will be without Evander Kane as he is dealing with his bankruptcy case. It’s not a big loss for the Oilers as Kane has failed to record a point since returning to the lineup, but any little help is important when we’re trying not to lose by three or more goals (+2.5).
Another interesting angle is the potential goalie timeshare in Edmonton. Jack Campbell had been one of the worst goalies in hockey statistically but is riding a five-game winning streak. He still ranks in the Bottom 5 in goals saved above expected so there isn’t as much trust with him as in other -400 goalies.
I’m fully aware that the Blue Jackets have goalie issues of their own, but there are spots when I’d say a team is an 80% probable favorite, but with Campbell (or even Stuart Skinner), I’m not confident.
For example, yesterday the Bruins played the Habs in Montreal as -425 favorites. They have a Vezina-caliber goalie and still won 4-2.
In that game, I had confidence that Boston would win nine times out of 10, but that trust isn't the same tonight in Edmonton. Not in a non-conference game where the BJs have been in the province since the weekend and played well in Calgary.
It’s tough to poke holes in a -400 favorite, but the Jackets and their low-scoring offense could find some success vs. Campbell who has been playing above his talents of late.
It’s a lean on the +2.5.
Blue Jackets vs Oilers Over/Under analysis
Few teams see totals of 7, but when they do, they’re usually playing the Oilers.
Edmonton has had a closing total of 7 in three of its last five games and 11 times on the season where it's 3-3-5 O/U. Columbus, on the other hand, has seen zero totals of 7 all season. Despite that, both teams have been profitable to the Over on the season with a combined record of 54-36-5.
This total opened at 6.5 (-120 to the Over) and should reach 7 across the board despite some books still posting 6.5 as of this afternoon.
I’d be happy to take the Over 6.5 if available as high as -130. The real question is will the Jackets score here and I think they can.
Columbus has seen some two-way scoring games of late and has at least three goals in six of its last 10 games.
The power play isn’t anything to write home about, but with the potency of the Oilers' power play, if Edmonton scores with the man advantage, Columbus will get those sweet make-up calls that exist in hockey that the league doesn’t think does. When one team scores on the power play, a make-up call is always around the corner.
Also, the Jackets have elite scoring on the first line with Laine and Gaudreau, but the middle-six is also decent and this team has plenty of young early-round talent that can finish.
It’s not hard to look at the player point markets and see that this is going to be a high-scoring game as four players on the Oilers have a point total of 1.5.
The real question in this total is can the Jackets score? With Campbell’s prior track record and some talent up front (plus an inability to stop an opponent) thi,s game could easily see seven goals. Columbus to score three or more at even money is also live.
Blue Jackets vs Oilers betting trend to know
The Over is 8-1 in the Blue Jackets’ last nine games playing on one day’s rest. Find more NHL betting trends for Blue Jackets vs Oilers.
Blue Jackets vs Oilers game info
|Location:||Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB|
|Date:||Wednesday, January 25, 2023|
|Puck drop:||9:30 p.m. ET|