Blackhawks vs Lightning Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Tough to Topple Total

The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Chicago Blackhawks as heavy NHL odds favorites in one of Thursday night’s early-window games.

There were five or fewer total goals scored in each of the two meetings between these clubs last season.

Will we see another low-scoring affair, or can the goals pick up this time around? Find out in our free NHL picks for Blackhawks vs. Lightning on Thursday, November 9.

Blackhawks vs Lightning odds

Blackhawks vs Lightning predictions

Chicago has stayed relatively competitive to start this campaign despite some brutal 5-on-5 play, which can be accredited to goaltending. Petr Mrazek is expected to get the nod between the pipes for the Blackhawks on Thursday and looks to continue his excellent start to the season.

Through seven appearances in the crease, Mrazek is 3-3 with a .923 SV% and 2.81 GAA. There have been six or fewer total goals scored in four of his past six starts.

This success could continue against the Lightning, a team Mrazek has fared well against recently. Over his past five starts against them, he’s 2-2-1 with a .922 SV% and 2.54 GAA. There were five or fewer total goals scored in four of those five outings.

Across the ice, goaltender Jonas Johansson is expected to draw the start for the Bolts. Filling in for Andrei Vasilevskiy, who remains on IR, is an incredibly difficult task, although Johansson has upheld his end of the bargain.

Through 10 starts, Johansson’s 5-1-4 with a .907 SV% and 3.17 GAA. At 5-on-5, Johansson has saved .012 goals above expected per 60 minutes.

Both of these goaltenders should continue their success against these two lineups, both of which rank in the bottom half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. Besides goaltending, the one other aspect of the game in which Chicago has fared well is killing penalties, which it has done at an 83.3% clip, the 11th-best mark in the league.

That will be a crucial factor in slowing down a Lightning offense that has relied heavily on special teams and ranks second in power play percentage.

My best bet: Under 6 (+118 at FanDuel)

Blackhawks vs Lightning same-game parlay

Under 6.5 (-110)

Lightning ML (-265)

+159 at FanDuel

The Lightning are the better team all over the ice, and Chicago’s most likely chance is if Mrazek steals a game. However, the Bolts rank higher in both xGF/60 and expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.

Not only is Tampa better offensively and defensively, but it is also stronger behind the bench, on special teams, and in the faceoff circle. Additionally, the Lightning have won each of the past eight meetings between these two teams.

Dating back even further, they’re 21-6 straight up over their past 27 games against this rebuilding Chicago organization.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Blackhawks vs Lightning moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Lightning opened as a –260 favorite and have since been bet up to –265. I don't think the market is going to show a ton of respect to the Hawks in this spot, and I only suspect the number will grow wider the closer we get to puck drop due to the ice-wide edges and recent domination.

That brings us to the total, which opened at 6.5 and remains at that number. With that said, I like the Under 6 at +118 more than laying the 10 cents of juice at 6.5, although I think there is still value in that number if you wish to go that route.

Blackhawks vs Lightning betting trend to know

There were five or fewer total goals scored in each of the two meetings between these clubs last season. Find more NHL betting trends for Blackhawks vs. Lightning.

Blackhawks vs Lightning game info

Blackhawks vs Lightning latest injuries

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