One-third of the NFL season is in the rearview mirror, and bookies and bettors are getting a clearer picture of the football universe.
That also means the NFL Week 7 odds leave little wiggle room for your wagers. The power ratings that pump out point spreads and totals are humming with a month and a half of data, so not only do you have to sniff out the best bet but get the best of the number to back it up.
We run down the opening Week 7 odds and pinpoint which spread and Over/Under totals to bet now and which ones you should bet later.
Week 7 bet now, bet later picks
- Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6): Bet Now
- Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5): Bet Later
- New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (Over 44.5): Bet Now
- Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals (Under 46): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6): Bet Now
Things are as murky as ever in the AFC North. Both the Ravens and Browns are coming off upset losses on Sunday, but Baltimore is at least putting up a fight and not shooting itself in the foot.
Cleveland was rolled by Patriots’ third-string QB Bailey Zappe in Week 6 and has given up 68 total points over the past two games.
The Ravens are far from mistake-free and are fresh off a messy loss to the Giants on the weekend. However, Baltimore is back home and is able to ground and pound one of the worst defenses — more specifically run defenses — in the NFL.
The Browns enter Week 7 ranked 31st in EPA allowed per play while sitting dead last in EPA allowed per handoff. The Ravens run game sits No. 2 in the offensive flip of that advanced metric, with a 44% success rate per handoff.
Baltimore hit the board as 6-point home chalk and the price on that key number is climbing quickly. With things crumbling in Cleveland and the Browns playing just their third road game of the season this Sunday, run with the Ravens now before money pushes this spread to a touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5): Bet Later
An extended East Coast stay didn’t do the dinged-up 49ers any favors at Atlanta in Week 6. While the defense is missing the most bodies, it was the offense that looked truly awful.
San Francisco’s attack lacked any threat downfield and three turnovers didn’t help the cause, leaving the Niners offense looking nothing like the past two weeks. Kyle Shanahan’s crew had better shake it off with the Chiefs coming to visit in Week 7.
Kansas City couldn’t come back against the Bills in their rematch of the AFC Divisional Round game, with Patrick Mahomes getting picked off on the final drive. The Chiefs did play tough and find themselves opening as 2.5-point road chalk for this Super Bowl LIV rematch.
Books are upping the vig on Kansas City -2.5 as of Sunday night, with some field-goal spreads surfacing, and the 49ers’ laundry list of injuries should steer early play toward the Chiefs. But if you’re going for gold with the Niners in Week 7, wait it out and see if you can get them +3 or higher.
New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (Over 44.5): Bet Now
The Thursday Night Football games have been duds so far this season. But Saints at Cardinals could surprise you.
New Orleans has been plagued with injuries to key skill players all season, yet still has managed to pump out the points in recent showings. The Saints have amassed 90 total points over the past three games and enter Week 7 with the 10th-highest EPA per play since Week 4.
The once-mighty NOLA defense hasn’t complemented that offensive outburst. New Orleans has also allowed 90 points in that span (29th in EPA allowed per play), which has led to three straight Over winners with plenty of headroom: topping totals of 41.5, 45, and 42.5 points.
Arizona’s offense has been all over the place to start 2022. But hey, the Cardinals get WR DeAndre Hopkins back in Week 7. Hopkins was the linchpin of this offense last season, and his presence will help QB Kyler Murray get untracked after passing performances of 207, 250, and 222 in the last three games.
The Cardinals’ secondary isn’t great, sitting 27th in EPA allowed per dropback, and the Saints could potentially have WR Michael Thomas and QB Jameis Winston back after that passing pair missed the past three contests.
This total opened as low as 44.5 points but has jumped to as high as 46 points at some respected online operators. If you believe Thursday football can be better — or at least more entertaining — bet the Over now.
Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals (Under 46): Bet Later
We have two teams climbing the standings the past four weeks, with the Falcons and Bengals winning three of their last four, respectively.
Cincinnati has posted scores of 27, 27, and 30 in those wins while Atlanta has gone for 27, 23, and 28 points in its three victories. That output has this opening Over/Under ticking upwards from 45 points to 46 in the first hour of action.
There could be value with the Under in this non-conference clash, however. Cincinnati’s defense has held its own to start the season, boasting the eighth-ranked EPA allowed per play and had held three straight foes to less than 20 points before giving up 26 to New Orleans on Sunday — the first time in four games Cincy has gone Over the number.
The Falcons don’t measure out well in the advanced metrics but have been able to keep opponents out of the end zone. Atlanta has allowed 14, 21, 20, and 23 points in the past four contests, coming against some pretty sound offensive competition. Three of those four went Under the total.
If you’re wondering about Under-ing, wait it out and see how high this total rises before getting down any action.
