Best NFL Betting Values for Early Week 6 NFL Lines: Time to Go Buc Wild

Welcome to Week 5, a schedule chocked full of incredible games such as... Tennessee and Washington!

Ew, wait, no. How about... Detroit and New England? Seattle and New Orleans? Teddy Bridgewater vs. the Jets?

Alright, alright, enough of this — let's just skip ahead to Week 6 odds, shall we?

I mean, we were going to look into the future anyways, but we didn't even need any arm-twisting! I will twist your arm, however, on the NFL odds for next week, specifically Tom Brady not getting enough respect against a rookie.

See below for why you might want to bet on the Brady bunch next week... this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Pittsburgh Steelers)

Teams	Current spread
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-6.5
Pittsburgh Steelers	+6.5

The Buccaneers' defense had a rough time in Week 4, getting shredded by Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

However, there truly isn't any other QB like Mahomes, and that 41-point outburst seems more the exception than the rule when it comes to Tampa's defense, which had previously given up 27 points to the Cowboys (mostly with Dak Prescott), Saints, and Packers combined.

Head coach Todd Bowles again has an elite defense, sitting fifth in Expected Points Added per play, and will face a Steelers offense in Week 6 that is currently lower in offensive EPA/play than any of Tampa's previous five opponents (including the upcoming matchup with Atlanta in Week 5).

As for that Pittsburgh offense, it has been so brutal so far that we've already seen Mitchell Trubisky benched in favor of rookie first-round pick Kenny Pickett — who went 10 of 13 for 120 yards in relief against the New York Jets in Week 4... but his three incompletions were all interceptions.

Pickett definitely makes the Steelers passing attack more of a downfield threat... but a rookie making his home debut against a defense that has the eighth-highest blitz rate and second-most interceptions in the league? That usually doesn't pan out well.

In their two previous home games, the Steelers closed at +7.5 against the Bengals in Week 1 and +4.5 against the Browns in a short Week 3 — there is a very strong argument that the Buccaneers (who are getting healthier) are a better club than either of those.

Pittsburgh also was spotted three points against the Patriots, who were coming off an ugly opening loss,  at home in Week 2 — you're telling me Brady & Co. are just 3.5 points better than a Mac Jones-led team?

I don't buy it. Tampa Bay laying less than a touchdown just feels too low and seems like a mix of people being down on the Bucs (after the Mahomes thrashing) and the Pickett hope (and hype) train.

After this weekend's action, when the Bucs should dust a Falcons squad without Cordarrelle Patterson and Buffalo's defense (and offense) beats the breaks off of Pickett and the Steelers, we'll all be reminded how much of a disparity there is between these clubs, and that 6.5-point spread will vanish into thin air.

Sportsbooks you can bet Buccaneers -6.5 right now:

Pages related to this topic