The holiday season is fast approaching, and so is the end of the NFL season. We’re onto Week 16 of 18, with a full slate of 16 games set to go between Thursday and Monday, the bulk of which will be played on Saturday.
One of those Saturday afternoon games has caught our eye, and we’ll use it to anchor both of our two-leg parlay picks for Week 16.
Week 16 NFL parlay picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Parlay Pick 1
PARLAY: Giants +4.5 (-110) + Chargers -5 (-110) = +264 at DraftKings
Giants +4.5 (-110)
Vikings fans may want to brace for another big letdown this Christmas Eve if recent history is any indication.
Minnesota was last seen snatching victory from the jaws of defeat against the Colts, posting an NFL-record 33-point comeback in the second half. The last time the Vikings had such a dramatic victory — a 17-point comeback against the Bills decided in overtime — they were run over by the Cowboys the following week, 40-3.
The Giants may not possess the firepower Dallas does, but they can control the clock against Minnesota’s abysmal defense, which ranks last in total yardage allowed per game (399.2). Saquon Barkley picked up 87 yards on the ground against the Commanders when last seen, and faces the 18th-ranked run stoppers in the NFL (120.4 yards allowed per game).
Daniel Jones hasn’t thrown a pick in four straight games, and takes on a defense that’s forced only three turnovers in its last five games, and is 31st in stopping the pass (278.8 yards allowed per game).
New York is trending well too, going 5-1 against the spread in its last six road games, and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against teams with winning records.
Chargers -5 (-110)
The wait between the Giants game on Saturday and the Chargers game on Monday Night Football might end up feeling like an eternity, but the money will be just as green.
The Colts’ win in Jeff Saturday’s coaching debut seems like a distant memory, as they’ve suffered four straight losses since then. The defense has completely fallen apart in the last two tilts, as this unit was gouged for 54 points by the Cowboys and 39 points in one half plus overtime during an epic collapse against the Vikings. Kirk Cousins threw for 460 yards for Minnesota in that latter tilt.
Justin Herbert has averaged 322.3 passing yards over his last four games, so the L.A. aerial attack is in fine form. The return to health of both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams has had a lot to do with that — the pair have combined for 361 receiving yards over their last two tilts.
Meanwhile, Indy’s offense is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, shifting to Nick Foles at quarterback over erstwhile MVP Matt Ryan. Foles will not have running back Jonathan Taylor (ankle) behind him, as the slumping tailback has hit the IR. Don’t expect this unit to make things interesting at any point.
Parlay Pick 2
PARLAY: Giants/Vikings Under 48 (-110) + Falcons/Ravens Under 36 (Odds) = +264 at Caesars
Giants/Vikings Under 48 (-110)
I like the Giants quite a bit in this spot, so it only makes sense to back the Under against such a high number.
Big Blue have been rewarding Under players for a while now, posting a 15-33-3 Over/Under record in their last 51 games overall. New York has also gone below the total in five of its last seven road games, and is 7-3-1 to the Under in its last 11 games played in December.
The Giants’ methodical approach to offense should work against a lackluster Vikings defense. Jones and Barkley can kill the clock and keep the ball away from Cousins and the rest of Minnesota’s potent offense. New York figures to make things difficult for Cousins anyway, ranking third in opponent completion percentage this year (60.7%).
The Under is 51-21 in the Vikings’ last 72 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, so this squad can struggle with consistency. Even in a dome, a lot of things need to go right in order for Overs to hit on a number like this. There’s overwhelming evidence to suggest that the Under will cash.
Falcons/Ravens Under 36 (-110)
This is an awfully low number, but these two offenses have been awful of late. Add some inclement weather to the mix, and it’s difficult to envision many points being produced.
The Falcons have been held to 18 points or fewer in three straight games, and in seven of their last 10 overall. This offense has averaged a mere 15.6 points over its last five road affairs.
Desmond Ridder did not do much to help the cause after stepping in for Marcus Mariota off a bye last week, going 13-for-26 with 97 yards and no touchdowns. He was also sacked four times, and faces the Ravens’ fifth-ranked pass rush in this one (42 sacks).
Baltimore scored a season-low three points against the Browns last Saturday, and has now been held to 16 or fewer points in four of five games since its Week 10 bye. The absence of Lamar Jackson (shoulder) hasn’t helped matters, and he could be sidelined once again here.
Though this contest won’t be played in precipitation, sustained winds of 20 mph will likely ground the passing game of both teams. The temperature is expected to barely reach 20 degrees, though the “real feel” could be close to zero, and that could impact the kicking game too.
