The NFL playoffs will be here before you know it, but there's still lots to settle with four weeks left in the regular season. There are six teams in the NFC at 6-7, including the three top squads in the NFC South. I'm picking three of those clubs, all of whom are favored in the NFL odds, to get to the .500 mark and solidify their postseason standing.
I'm also anticipating some fireworks in a game not many would expect and taking advantage of some nicely-priced NFL player props in a same-game parlay. Join me as I break down the Week 15 odds and make my best free NFL parlay picks for Sunday, December 17.
Week 15 NFL parlay picks
- Falcons ML + Packers ML + Rams ML = +237
- CHI/CLE o36.5 + J. Fields 200+ pass yds + J. Flacco o1.5 pass TDs = +450
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best Week 15 parlay pick
Falcons moneyline
Packers moneyline
Rams moneyline
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The Atlanta Falcons' loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home last week was disappointing, but I sincerely doubt they'll hand the hapless Carolina Panthers their second win of the season, even in Carolina.
The NFL weather report indicates a strong chance of rain and wind in Charlotte on Sunday, and that will make life even more difficult than it's already been for Panthers QB Bryce Young. Chuba Hubbard will likely see lots of action vs. a Falcons front that's seventh in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per attempt. Atlanta has the superior running back talent anyway with Bijan Robinson, so expect his number to be called early and often en route to a workmanlike victory at -162 odds.
I think the Packers' moneyline should be below -200 vs. the Bucs, so I'll gladly add it at -175. Green Bay is at home in this battle of 6-7 squads, and the records aren't necessarily equal when you dig deeper. The Pack have beaten the Bears, Saints, Rams, Chargers, Lions, and Chiefs, while Tampa has taken down the Vikings, Bears, Saints, Titans, Panthers, and Falcons, with those first three wins coming over the initial four weeks of the campaign.
Jordan Love looks like the superior passer compared to Baker Mayfield, and he'll get to attack the Bucs' 30th-ranked pass-stoppers. Mayfield faces Green Bay's eighth-best pass defense.
I'll close things out with the shortest leg in this parlay, the Los Angeles Rams -305. The Washington Commanders and Rams could not look more opposite in recent weeks in terms of motivation, as L.A. had won three in a row and nearly knocked off the Ravens last week. By contrast, the Commanders have dropped four straight and allowed 45 points in back-to-back contests. Washington seems like a team that's phoning it in, in what could be the waning days of the Ron Rivera era.
Best Week 15 SGP
Bears vs. Browns Over 36.5
Justin Fields 200+ passing yards
Joe Flacco Over 1.5 passing TDs
Bears vs. Browns is one of six Sunday kickoffs with a total below 40, but I don't share the bookmakers' pessimism. Conditions in Cleveland will be conducive to passing, and I think both Justin Fields and Joe Flacco will be able to move the ball enough to get this total above the key number of 37. For what it's worth, I'm taking an alternate total in this SGP but would be comfortable betting Over 38.5 at -110 straight-up at bet365.
The Browns still boast the NFL's best pass defense at 159.7 yards allowed per game, but that number has been swayed by some wacky results like the 17 yards Clayton Tune passed for in his Cardinals debut back in Week 9. Cleveland has been pierced for Over 200 yards by such competent quarterbacks as Trevor Lawrence (on a bad wheel, no less) and Matthew Stafford over the last two weeks, and I expect Fields to add to that.
Fields may be thought of as a run-first quarterback, but he's crossed the 200-yard plateau in six of nine games this year. He left early due to an injury that cost him about a month in one of those misses.
Flacco might be the best quarterback the Browns have had all year, which is shocking considering he was on the street just a few weeks ago. He's thrown for 565 yards over two starts, and books are somewhat aggressively pricing his passing prop at 228.5 yards. I don't hate the line, but I'd rather go for the +145 odds on Over 1.5 passing touchdowns, which he's hit in each of his first two contests with Cleveland.
The Bears have allowed 1.85 passing touchdowns per game this year, the third-highest mark in football.
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