Ladies and gentlemen, it’s teaser time!
It brings me no pleasure to write that this article with these NFL picks has been my most inconsistent piece of content this NFL season. Entering the NFL Week 13 odds, my teaser record sits at 5-7 after the Cleveland Browns couldn’t keep the Broncos from pulling away last week.
Thankfully, though, we’ve got six more weeks in the regular season to go. A winning record is 100% achievable, but it will require some additional focus, some additional luck, and perhaps a little bit more risk as I tend to play it a little safe with these NFL odds from time to time.
Week 13 presents a bit of a tricky slate for teaser bettors, but that’s not always a bad thing because it seems like one or two of those coveted teaser spots where you take a favorite inside of three and they end up losing every week.
So let’s get into it, and let’s get back into the winner's circle with our NFL Week 13 predictions!
Week 13 NFL teaser picks
- Jaguars (-2.5)
- Eagles (+9)
Picks made on December 1 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Week 13 Teaser
Jaguars (-8.5 to -2.5) vs Bengals
I think it’s fair to say that the Cincinnati Bengals are one of the worst teams in the NFL without Joe Burrow. The offensive dropoff without him is obvious, but I think it’s flying under the radar that they’ve been one of the worst defenses in the league. They come into this game ranked dead-last in yards allowed per play while also ranking 28th in opponent third down conversion percentage.
We got a full taste of the Jake Browning experience last week against the Steelers and it wasn’t pretty. He led the Bengals to just 10 points and 222 total yards at home against the Steelers and he could have his hands full against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that doesn’t give up much in the run game where they rank ninth in yards allowed per rush. If the ability to successfully run the ball isn’t there, I don’t trust Browning to get the Bengals up and down the field consistently.
The Jags are on a nice stretch right now that’s seen them win seven of their last eight games, and outside of getting upset at home by the Texans, I won’t fault them too much for their other two losses which came against the Chiefs and 49ers.
Eagles (+3 to +9) vs 49ers
I’m very surprised that the Philadelphia Eagles are an underdog in this game on their home field where they’ve gone 17-1 SU in their last 18 games that Jalen Hurts has started in. The ability to tease them up through seven points at home against any opponent looks like a gift from the football betting gods, so I’ll gladly jump on board.
The San Francisco 49ers ran out of quarterbacks when these teams last played in last season’s NFC Championship game. That’s a legit excuse for only scoring seven points but a lot of people seem to conveniently forget that the 49ers defense allowed 31 points in that game. While the time of possession played a big factor in that, I don’t think the Eagles will struggle to score points this time around, and at the very least, they’ll be able to score enough to keep this game from getting out of hand.
We also have the strength of the Eagles on third down where their offense ranks third in the league against a 49ers defense who hasn’t been great at getting stops on third down. The 49ers rank 21st in third-down defense, so expect Philly to be able to extend drives, and if needed, milk the clock to keep the ball out of Brock Purdy’s hands.
Learn more about teaser betting with Covers’ teaser betting guide.
Best Week 13 teaser spots
- Jaguars (-8.5 to -2,5)
- Eagles (+3 to +9)
- Dolphins vs. Commanders (-9.5 to -3.5)
- Panthers vs. Buccaneers (+5 to +11)
- Titans vs. Colts (+1.5 to +7.5)
I get it, it’s much more ideal to tease a team inside of three, but I like the Miami Dolphins to cover the -9.5 in this game, so I especially like taking them inside of four points. The Dolphins’ offense against the Washington Commanders' defense is one of the biggest mismatches in the NFL this week. Miami’s defense has also turned and corner and is starting to look like one of the league’s top units… AND, the Dolphins destroy bad teams, so I think they’ll do it again against a Commanders squad that already has three double-digit losses on its home field.
There should be a different energy for the Carolina Panthers this week with the team letting go of head coach Frank Reitch who did a horrendous job of guiding this offense and top overall pick, Bryce Young. Yes, the Panthers are bad, but so are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and for the most part, Carolina has hung around in games against other bad teams. Of course, they get manhandled against the likes of the Dolphins, Cowboys, and Lions, but I think their offense can keep pace against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks in the bottom six in the NFL in yards per play and third down conversion percentage.
The Tennessee Titans aren’t a team that gets pushed around on its home field. Somewhat surprisingly, they’re 4-0 SU in Tennessee this season where they rank seventh in net yards per play. The Indianapolis Colts’ defense has struggled against the run and on third down in recent weeks, so I expect a heavy dose of Derrick Henry that’ll keep the ball in the Titans’ hands and extend drives. The Colts offense is also having a lot of trouble moving the ball and converting on third down lately, so at the very least, I think the Titans keep this one close.
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