NFL Week 12 Odds: Best Spot Bets Include Chiefs Letdown Spot

It's a long week in the NFL, with action stretching through Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and into the Sunday home stretch. Find out the best situational angles as our NFL spot bets look between the lines.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Nov 24, 2023 • 09:09 ET • 4 min read
Patrick Mahomes NFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Thanksgiving Week schedule is its own beast, with three games on Thursday and a new Black Friday matinee mixing up the NFL odds in 2023.

Holiday plans and the demands of family and friends also provide unique distractions for those teams traveling in Week 12, but we’ll stick to the classics, scouring the schedule for the best situational handicapping opportunities — AKA spot bets.

As you chow down on your turkey & Co., consider these sticky spots when making your NFL picks in Week 12.

Letdown Spot: Kansas City Chiefs (-9) at Las Vegas Raiders

As of this writing, the Kansas City Chiefs still have their monster Monday Night Football matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles to play.

That sets the table for a letdown spot from the Chiefs, who have a short week with Thanksgiving right in the middle of that prep before traveling to Las Vegas for Week 12.

The look-ahead lines have Kansas City laying as much as -10 in a divisional road game on a tight turnaround after Turkey Day. It’s not the best situation — even without a looming letdown and short week — with divisional road faves of -7.5 or higher going just 9-15 ATS since 2020.

The result of Monday’s Super Bowl match will have influence over where this spread goes as well as how ripe the Chiefs are for a letdown spot in Week 12.

Stay tuned…

Best NFL bonuses

DraftKings All Users
No-sweat 3+ leg SGP every day
Bonus bets back if your wager doesn’t win! Claim Now

BetMGM New Users
Up to $1,500 bonus bets back
If your first bet doesn’t win! Claim Now

Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Look-Ahead Spot: New England Patriots at New York Giants (+3.5)

No team in the NFL has been bitten by the injury bug as badly as the New York Giants. They entered Week 11 with the depth chart as shallow as a puddle — especially on defense — and still came away with an upset win over Washington as 7.5-point road pups.

New York is home to the New England Patriots in Week 12 with a much-needed bye sitting on the other side of the Thanksgiving weekend. That sets up a potential look-ahead spot for a losing team just wanting to get some time away from the football field.

There’s also a healthy dose of letdown spot mixed into this Sunday’s homestand with New England. The Giants blew up a bunch of survivor pools and decimated parlays and teasers with their 31-19 upset in Washington.

The win not only made bookmakers very happy but it snapped a three-game slide for the G-Men. It was just New York’s third victory of the season and really got to sink in deep, considering FedEx Field didn’t have any hot water for postgame showers.

The look-ahead lines had New York as a 5.5-point home pup to the Patriots this Sunday, but the win over the Commanders trimmed this line to Pats -3.5.

That adjustment seems like a head-scratcher to me. New England is coming off the bye with two weeks of Bill Belichick planning for his old NFC foil and Big Blue is in a big bad situational squeeze.

Schedule Spot: Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-11)

OK, this isn’t a traditional “schedule spot” in terms of tricky travel or a bunch of road games in the short window (truth be told, there weren’t really any in Week 12).

This is the curse of the Texas Turkey.

The Dallas Cowboys have hosted a Thanksgiving Thursday game almost every season since 1966 but it’s the past dozen holiday showcases that concern us. Dallas is a dismal 1-11 ATS in the previous 12 Thanksgiving Day games, including a backbreaking bad beat in the 2022 contest.

America’s Team was giving 10.5 points to the Giants and a last-second touchdown from New York made the final 28-20 in a game thoroughly dominated by Dallas. This year, the Cowboys are catching a similar spread, laying 11 points vs. the Washington Commanders.

Maybe it’s the short week and the distraction of the holiday along with a puffed-up spread for one of the most public bet teams in sports. Whatever the reason, betting on Dallas on Thanksgiving has been like finding a fingernail in the stuffing. Yuck!

Google News
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the star to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic

Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo