Like that scrappy team that just won’t go away, Unders made another big statement once again in Week 11, going 10-4 which now has them cashing at a 60.7% clip on the season. While I keep expecting some sort of regression for these NFL betting trends — as I mention in this article week after week — they just keep coming back stronger, but is the tide finally set to turn in Week 12?
This week’s NFL odds feature some rock-bottom totals including Patriots vs. Giants at 33.5, Steelers vs. Bengals at 34, Browns vs. Broncos at 35, and Panthers vs. Titans at 36.5.
Low totals are still going Under though, so don’t be scared off if your numbers support backing the Under in these games. Over the last three weeks, 14 games have had a total lower than 40, and nine of them still went Under. With plenty of backups and backups to backups filling in a quarterback for a handful of teams, this is the state of the NFL these days.
Something else that caught my eye that’s lending itself to more Unders this season is poor execution in the red zone. So far, 12 offenses have a red zone touchdown conversion percentage of less than 50%. Last season, seven teams finished lower than 50% and the season before that, it was only four teams.
It will be interesting to see how low oddsmakers can go with these totals as it’s rare to see totals south of 35, but it might be more commonplace during the stretch run of the season when the weather starts to have more of an impact on NFL picks.
On to the good stuff — here’s my favorite nugget for every game this week! And, oh yeah, Happy Thanksgiving!
Best NFL Week 12 betting trends
Packers vs Lions
The trend: 12 of the Lions' last 15 home games have seen the teams combine for 51 or more points
Fireworks in Detroit have become the norm with Ford Field playing host to lots of shootouts recently, including three games this season that saw 57 or more combined points. These teams were involved in a high-scoring affair in Week 4 that saw the Detroit Lions win 34-20. The total for Thursday’s game is 47.5.
Commanders vs Cowboys
The trend: Dallas has gone Over its team total in all four of its home games
Short trend here, but a trend needs to start somewhere and the Dallas Cowboys appear to be in a good spot to keep pace with the 40 points per game that they’re averaging at home. Their team total for this game is 30.5 which is a number the Washington Commanders have allowed more than in the few times where they’ve faced decent offenses this season, including the Bills scoring 37, the Eagles scoring 34 and 38, the Broncos scoring 33… and Tommy Devito and the Giants scoring 31 last week.
49ers vs Seahawks
The trend: The 49ers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 divisional games
The San Francisco 49ers have been cleaning up against its NFC West rivals. The only loss in this trend was earlier in the season when Sean McVay and the Rams opted to kick a meaningless field goal with time expiring at the end of the game. As far as head-to-heads with the Seattle Seahawks go, they’ve beaten them by 18, 20, and eight in the last three meetings. The 49ers are favored by 6.5.
Dolphins vs Jets
The trend: 13 of the Jets’ last 15 games have failed to cross 40 points
Right back to the well on this one after it hit again in Week 11. It just so has it that the first-ever Black Friday game has a total of 41 and with a man named Tim Boyle stepping in to play QB for a New York Jets’ offense that’s averaging 0.9 touchdowns per game, a low score looks likely again. The Jets’ defense is still a top unit, ranking fourth in yards allowed per play, while the Miami Dolphins defense is starting to come together with just 34 points allowed in its last three games.
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Saints vs Falcons
The trend: The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in the first half this season
Despite playing a light schedule this season, the Atlanta Falcons have had some awful starts thanks primarily to averaging just 7.4 first-half points. This trend includes going 0-5 ATS at home, but have no fear because Desmond Ridder is back starting at quarterback! (insert eye roll here). The New Orleans Saints are favored on the first-half spread at -0.5.
Jaguars vs Texans
The trend: The Jaguars are 3-14 SU in their last 17 divisional road games
For full context, they have won three straight on the road vs other AFC South teams, but they’ve otherwise been horrible in this spot vs. divisional opponents who haven’t exactly been top-tier teams over the past few seasons. The Houston Texans are a small moneyline underdog at +100 and will look to continue another trend that’s seen them win 10 of their last 11 games against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Panthers vs Titans
The trend: The Panthers are 8-2 ATS in the first quarter this season
They get progressively worse as the game goes on, but they consistently get off to respectable starts thanks to ranking fifth in first-quarter points allowed. This could mesh well against a Tennessee Titans offense that ranks 25th in first-quarter scoring. The Carolina Panthers spread for the opening quarter is +0.5 at a juicy -142. Don’t be surprised if the teams are tied at 0 end the end of the first quarter.
Patriots vs Giants
The trend: These teams are a combined 15-6 to the Under this season
My favorite stat of the season is that the New York Giants are somehow averaging 6.8 points per game at home. That, quite simply, is pathetic. The New England Patriots, meanwhile, are averaging 11.6 points on the road. That too, is quite simply pathetic. This game has the lowest total of the week at 33.5 and that still might be too high. For what it's worth, in the game after their bye last season, New England won 10-3 against the Jets.
Steelers vs Bengals
The trend: The Steelers are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games in Cincinnati
Sure, Joe Burrow wasn’t the quarterback of the Cincinnati Bengals for most of these games, but he also won’t be their quarterback on Sunday after going down for the season with an unfortunate injury. The Pittsburgh Steelers are also on a nice run since last season that’s seen them go 15-5 SU, which is good enough for a profit of almost 12 units. Pittsburgh’s moneyline is in the -118 range for this game.
Buccaneers vs Colts
The trend: The Colts are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a bye
I'll be the first to admit that this trend doesn't carry too much weight as we've seen multiple coaching staffs and quarterbacks ranging from Peyton Manning to Carson Wentz during its run, so don't bet on the Indianapolis Colts based on this pattern. That said, I'll hope that the torch can be passed to Gardiner Minshew as Indianapolis can continue cash in following its bye.
Rams vs Cardinals
The trend: The Rams are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games in Arizona
The Los Angeles Rams have put together a nice run in Arizona which includes eight outright wins. Five of these wins saw them drop at least 30 points. Los Angeles is favored by a single point. If that number holds, it’ll be the shortest spread in an Arizona Cardinals game all season.
Browns vs Broncos
The trend: The Browns have gone Over their team total in eight of ten games this season
This trend includes hitting the Over in all four of their road games for a Cleveland Browns offense that’s been anything but electric regardless of who the quarterback has been. Their team total for this game is 16.5 points, which is a number they’ve topped in eight of 10 games. For what it’s worth, five of the six opponents that the Denver Broncos have hosted have gone over this number of 16.5.
Chiefs vs Raiders
The trend: These teams are a combined 19-2 to the second half Under this season
This trend is highlighted by the Kansas City Chiefs being a perfect 10-0 to the second half under thanks to averaging a shocking league-low 5.3 second-half points per game. The Las Vegas Raiders aren’t that far ahead as they rank 30th in second-half scoring at 6.8 points. The second-half total for the game is 22.5.
Bills vs Eagles
The trend: The Eagles are 14-3 SU in their last 17 home games
This is a true home-field advantage for the Philadelphia Eagles who remain undefeated at home this season with respectable opponents like the Dolphins and Cowboys coming to town. We have seen the Bills rise to the occasion in big road games in the past vs the likes of the Chiefs and Ravens in 2021, but this year’s version of the team isn’t exactly one you want to trust in a tight spot. Philly is -175 on the moneyline.
Ravens vs Chargers
The trend: The Ravens are 9-2 ATS in the first half this season
If you’re looking to hit the sack early for this week’s Sunday nighter, this might be the bet for you. Baltimore is also 5-0 ATS in the first half on the road and leads the league with an impressive 5.8 first-half points allowed per game. The Los Angeles Chargers are 29th in first-half points allowed at home and they’ve gotten wrecked in most of the games where they’ve played respectable offenses. The Ravens are -2.5 on the first-half spread.
Bears vs Vikings
The trend: The Vikings are 10-0-1 to the first quarter Under this season
This trend extended last week after they combined for just three points with the Broncos. While the Minnesota Vikings stink on offense to start games, their defense comes out strong, allowing just 3.3 first-quarter points per game thanks to going six straight games without allowing a first-quarter touchdown. The first-quarter total for this game is 7.5.
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