Vikings vs Bears Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 6: Chicago Offense Stays Hot

A battle of 1-4 teams will take place when the Chicago Bears host the Minnesota Vikings. With Chicago's offense coming off a 40-point performance, our NFL picks love the team to go over its team total against a putrid Minnesota D.

Oct 15, 2023 • 08:52 ET • 4 min read

Week 6 odds for the NFL feature an NFC North battle between the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears. Both teams are off to an ugly 1-4 start to the season but Chicago just pulled off its first win after hammering Washington by 20 points.

Meanwhile, Minnesota is coming off a defeat against Kansas City, but the team's biggest loss was seeing superstar receiver Justin Jefferson go down with a hamstring injury.

NFL odds have the Vikes as 3-point road favorites with the Over/Under at 44. Here are my best free NFL picks for the Vikings vs. Bears on October 15. 

Vikings vs Bears odds

Vikings vs Bears predictions

Justin Jefferson is the reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year and is a huge part of Minnesota's offense that won't be replaced. However, I'm still wary of fading the Minnesota Vikings since even without Jefferson they might move the chains against a Chicago Bears defense that is second-last in the NFL in EPA. 

That said, Minnesota isn't great on that side of the ball either, ranking 21st in defensive EPA and 25th in defensive dropback EPA. That should mean some success on offense for a Chicago side that is averaging 34 points and 461 yards per game over the last two weeks.

After looking like one of the worst QBs in the league through the first three weeks of the year, Justin Fields has shined over the last two games. He completed 80% of his passes for 335 yards and four touchdowns against the Broncos in Week 4 before throwing for 282 yards and another four scores last week (while adding 57 yards on the ground). 

Fields has benefitted from the presence of DJ Moore who has hauled in 16 passes for 361 yards over the last two games. The Bears do have some concerns at running back after losing starter Khalil Herbert to an ankle injury and backup Roschon Johnson to a concussion in Week 5.

Even if Johnson doesn't pass concussion protocol I have faith in third-string RB D'Onta Foreman. The veteran has just three carries with his new team but last season he broke the 100-yard mark five times when called upon to start for Carolina.

Like most young QBs (especially those playing behind shaky lines), Fields struggles under pressure. However, the Vikings are second-last in the NFL with a pressure rate of just 14.4% and Fields has a completion percentage of 70.2% while posting an offensive grade of 76.9 when kept clean according to PFF. Expect Fields to put together another solid performance and take the Over 20.5 on Chicago's team total. 

My best bet: Bears team total Over 21.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site

Vikings vs Bears same-game parlay

Bears team total Over 20.5 points

Kirk Cousins Under 248.5 passing yards

Alexander Mattison Over 52.5 rushing yards

Cousins tends to struggle when playing outdoors on the road and with high winds in the forecast for Sunday he should go well below his passing yards prop. The absence of Jefferson also increases that likelyhood along with the fact that Bears could have three starters returning to secondary.

Mattison had just eight carries for 26 yards last week but he rushed for more than 90 yards in back-to-back contests in Weeks 3 and 4.

The Vikes added Cam Akers prior to Week 4 but Mattison continues to get the lion's share of the rush attempts and should be able to eclipse this low number especially if the wind hinders Minnesota's aerial attack.

Best NFL bonuses

bet365 Iowa Users Only
Kirk Cousins 200+ pass yards and 2+ pass TD (was +100, NOW +150)! Claim Now

FanDuel All Users
30% profit boost on one SGP for the 1 p.m. ET games! Claim Now

Caesars All Users
33% profit boost on one NFL Sunday SGP! Claim Now

DraftKings Kentucky Users Only
100% profit boost on one NFL Sunday bet! Claim Now

Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Vikings vs Bears spread and Over/Under analysis

The lookahead line for this contest had the Vikings as 4.5-point favorites but after it became clear that Jefferson was headed to the IL, this spread opened at Minnesota -3. It has bounced around this key number with most books currently pricing the Vikings at -2.5 as of Tuesday afternoon before moving back up to -3 by Friday.

The total has plunged from the opening number of 48.5 to 44 which is partially a reflection of how much Jefferson means to this Minnesota offense but is also due to the weather we're expecting on Sunday with winds projected to be at 20 mph.  

The Vikings have been making a habit out of playing close contest and while they went an absurd 11-0 in one-possession games last year, they are just 0-4 in those situations this season. They lost 27-20 to the Chiefs last week and their only victory this year has been against the 0-5 Panthers.

Carolina seems to be the worst team in the league now but that was what Chicago looked like after beginning the season with three straight double-digit losses. The Bears hit a low point with a 41-10 loss to the Chiefs in Week 3 when they trailed by 34 points at halftime. However, they played better the following week in a 31-28 loss to the Broncos before getting in the win column with a 40-20 road upset against the Commanders last week. 

Vikings vs Bears betting trend to know

The Over has cashed in all five of Chicago's games this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Bears.

Kentucky: Mobile sports betting is live!

Check out the best Kentucky sportsbook promos, with a number of odds boosts and offers available!

Kentucky sports betting launched online wagering on September 28 — review our list of the best Kentucky sports betting apps for making your first online bets in the Bluegrass State!

21+ and present in KY. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Vikings vs Bears game info

Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Date: Sunday, October 15, 2023
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network
Opening odds: Bears +3.5, 49

Vikings vs Bears latest injuries

Vikings vs Bears weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Google News
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the star to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo