The NFL Playoffs have been ripe with underdog winners in recent years. Over the last five postseasons, playoff pups cover the spread at a 60% clip.
The Wild Card Round used to be one of the best slates to take the points. However, the “Super” Wild Card Weekend —— with six games on the board instead of four — has been “Super Mild” in terms of underdog success.
In the seven playoffs before stretching the field to 14 teams, Wild Card dogs were 19-8-1 ATS – a 70% ATS windfall. Since expanding the bracket, pups have barely barked at 16-14 ATS over the last five postseasons.
With the field a little “watered down,” you can’t just blindly bag up all the underdogs and hope for the best. You must be more selective when it comes to taking the points with your NFL Wild Card picks and predictions.
Here are my best underdog NFL picks for this year’s “Super” Wild Card Weekend.
Regular season: 31-21-2 ATS (+6.73 units)
NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions and picks
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Bears +1.5
Steelers +3.5
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+1.5)
Best bet: Bears +1.5
(-120 at Caesars)
The Chicago Bears backed into the postseason on a two-game slide but were playing their best football down the stretch. The offense, more specifically, has looked great.
This is a Top-5 attack in terms of EPA per play since Week 12, with a two-headed monster forming at running back (D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai) and really giving Ben Johnson’s playbook dimension.
Chicago grinded for 99 yards or more on the ground in the six games before Week 18’s flop against the Lions, topping 130 rushing yards in four of those games, including 138 and 150 yards in two matchups with the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers’ once-mighty defense has been decimated by injuries, most notably along the defensive line. Green Bay has been bullied in the trenches, watching foes roll for a 48% success rate per handoff since Week 12 (31st). It’ll get pushed around by Chicago’s elite offensive line, which could be the best in the NFC.
Winning the "turf war" makes life easier for everyone in Chitown.
Those ground gains set up for shorter third downs, activate Johnson’s vaunted play-action schemes, make the Packers’ soft secondary vulnerable to random deep shots, and chew up possession, which then boosts the Bears defense and forces Green Bay to be one-dimensional with limited offensive touches.
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)
Best bet: Steelers +3.5
(-110 at BetRivers)
Regardless of how they got there, the Pittsburgh Steelers are in the playoffs.
The Steelers are hosting a Houston Texans team in one of the toughest venues in all of sports. Acrisure Stadium will undoubtedly be loud and cold, with temperatures that “feel like” sub-freezing on Monday night.
The Texans are all about that defense, entering the postseason with the top-ranked stop unit in the land. But to cover the spread, you need to put some points on the board. That’s been challenging for C.J. Stroud & Co. – at least when venturing into the great outdoors.
Houston averages less than 22 points per game in open-air venues and only 19.8 per road game – a 7.5-point slide compared to its production at home. Stroud is notoriously an “indoor cat," with his career passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per attempt all taking a nosedive outside.
The Texans’ offensive line is still an area of concern. While Houston has better protected Stroud this season, this group is still 21st in pass block win rate at ESPN, 22nd in pass block rating at PFF, and has allowed Stroud to feel pressure on almost 22% of dropbacks with the 12th most QB hurries allowed.
Pittsburgh’s bread and butter has always been chaos. That comes in the form of a pass rush that brings the blitz at the fourth-highest rate and sits Top 10 in both QB hits and sacks.
Stroud’s passing performances take a knock versus blitz-heavy schemes, with less time for deeper plays to develop. Houston went just 4-4 ATS as a visitor and, of course, you can't discount Mike Tomlin as a home underdog: 23-9-3 ATS since 2007 (70%).
My NFL Underdogs column is 31-21-2 ATS this season for +6.73 units.
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