Trevor Lawrence Odds and MNF Props: Trevor's Law

Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars have found a groove and get a soft matchup against a reeling Cincinnati Bengals team that can't stop anyone and no longer has a functional QB. Expect a big game from Lawrence.

Tom Oldfield - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Tom Oldfield • Betting Analyst
Dec 4, 2023 • 18:06 ET • 4 min read
Trevor Lawrence Jacksonville Jaguars NFL
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Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals entered the season with their eyes on a division title and AFC domination — but, as the latest NFL odds confirm, it’s only the Jaguars who are roaring toward the playoffs.

Joe Burrow’s wrist injury was a season-ender for the Cincinnati quarterback and, in all likelihood, the team’s postseason hopes too, so the Bengals aren’t likely to be one of the popular NFL picks with backup Jake Browning under center.

That should give Trevor Lawrence the majority of the Monday Night Football odds spotlight here for the 8-3 Jags. While it’s been an up-and-down season for Lawrence, he’s guided Jacksonville to seven wins from its last eight games. 

Here, we take a closer look at the Trevor Lawrence odds market ahead of tonight's Week 13 odds finale. It's part of our Bengals vs. Jaguars props analysis.

Also, don't forget to consult Jason Logan's Bengals vs. Jaguars predictions.

Trevor Lawrence MNF prop picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Trevor Lawrence MNF prop pick

Over 1.5 touchdown passes (-115)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are back in the MNF spot for the first time since December 2011, and they’re walking into a favorable matchup to mark the occasion.

With the Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals putting up just 10 points in Week 12 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, there’s every reason to expect the Jacksonville defense to dominate and get the ball back into Lawrence’s hands.

That feels like a formula for Lawrence to light up this Week 13 matchup. Despite the Jaguars’ impressive record, his numbers don’t jump off the screen — 12 touchdowns and seven picks hardly scream division-leading QB. But I see Lawrence rising to the occasion and passing for at least two touchdowns for the fourth time this year.

Lawrence described the 34-3 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10 as "one of the worst games I’ve probably played in my career" but vowed to "flush it."

Since then, the 24-year-old has responded in a big way. He threw for two scores in a comfortable victory against the Tennessee Titans in Week 11 and piled up 364 passing yards in last weekend’s key win over the Houston Texans. 

The Bengals are heading in the wrong direction with three straight losses, and I expect Lawrence to turn Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk loose against a Cincinnati defense allowing an NFL-worst 389 yards per game. That duo will pose problems, and Lawrence can also connect with Evan Engram, who leads the team in receptions, and red zone threat Zay Jones.

Though Travis Etienne Jr. has been a force this season, this feels like a Lawrence statement game as Jacksonville looks to prove it’s a true contender.

Prop: Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100 at DraftKings) 25% boost available

Trevor Lawrence MNF same-game parlay

Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

Trevor Lawrence Under 32.5 passing attempts

Jaguars team total Over 23.5

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While I like Lawrence’s chances of tossing a few touchdown passes, I don’t expect him to be slinging the ball around EverBank Stadium on Monday. The Jacksonville game script has typically included a healthy dose of run plays.

Lawrence has only thrown more than 32 passes once in his last six outings, and I can see him posting another efficient line while hitting the Under on his attempts number.

If the Jaguars get out to an early lead and the Bengals are as toothless offensively as they were in Week 12, the hosts are unlikely to be forcing things through the air.

The one wild card is the absence of Jacksonville left tackle Cam Robinson. That will mean some rejigging on the offensive line, and it remains to be seen how the Jags hold up against a Cincinnati team that’s +10 in turnover differential this year. 

But Jacksonville has the offensive firepower to keep the scoreboard ticking along, and I’m taking the Over on 23.5 points to round out my SGP. The Jaguars have gone past that total in five of their last seven games, and the time of possession should skew comfortably in their favor on MNF.

They rank just outside the Top 10 in points per game and tallied 34 against the Titans in their last contest on home turf. With Lawrence coming off back-to-back strong performances, Jacksonville has regained its mojo and has a clear path to 25+ points.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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