Best NFL Touchdown Props for Week 10: Edwards Can't Be Stopped

Prop bet #1: A diamond in the Gus

Gus Edwards has found the end zone six times in his recent three games. Despite the growing competition in the Baltimore Ravens backfield due to Keaton Mitchell's emergence, Edwards continues to dominate the goal-line carries. He remains a reliable choice to score for the fourth consecutive week on Sunday, offering solid odds at +140.

Since Week 7, Edwards has 11 of the 16 running back red zone carries and has seen five of the rush attempts from inside the five. Many of his carries are in tight but he has just a 12% stuffed run percentage, which is a solid number considering how hard those goalline yards are to get. 

This is the No. 1 rush offense in EPA/play and although the matchup is vs. the Cleveland Browns, the Dawg Pound is a better team vs. the pass and ranks 26th in rushing touchdowns allowed per game over the last three games. The Browns’ defense and their 0.365 points per play is also a bottom-10 number over that stretch and that includes posting a shutout last week. 

Edwards only had 15 snaps and five carries last week but that could have been because of a toe injury and game script. The running back also saw 15 carries vs. the Browns in Week 4 but Lamar Jackson vultured two TDs from him.

This is a TD I’d play to +115, as the +140 as of Friday will be gone by Sunday afternoon.  

Gus Edwards prop: Anytime touchdown (+140 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Hill power

I have no problems going back to the well in back-to-back weeks, especially with a better price in another solid matchup.

Taysom Hill is paying +225 this week to score a TD — something he has done in three straight weeks. Additionally, he recorded six more rushes in the red zone in Week 9, bringing his total to 16 over the past three weeks, with five of them occurring inside the five-yard line.

Dennis Allen and OC Pete Carmichael are using all of Hill’s tools in the red zone, and getting him to score at +180 or better is an auto bet going forward. The Minnesota Vikings are also a great opponent here, as the New Orleans Saints should be able to move the ball indoors vs. a defense that ranks 21st in success rate since Week 6 and always gives up more yards at home than on the road.

Only the Bears have a worse red-zone defensive TD percentage at home than the Vikings, sitting at a lofty 77.8%. With Hill rushing, throwing, and receiving TDs in the red zone, he has become notoriously underpriced to score week to week.

The Saints swiss-army knife has three rushing TDs and a receiving TD over his last four games and only one other player has more TDs over that stretch (Gus Edwards).  

Taysom Hill prop: Anytime touchdown (+225 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #3: Otton candy

Only five players last week finished with at least three red-zone targets and Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton was one of them. He is also paying +410 to score this week, which is the best price of that quintet. 

Otton caught two of those RZ passes vs. the Texans last week — both for scores. He was priced at +500 to score and the extra attention really didn’t drive his TD price down this week. 

The Bucs face the Tennessee Titans in a sub-40 total game which is likely why the TE’s TD price is so high, but I like this game’s Over as I wrote in our Buccaneers vs. Titans preview. 

The TE didn’t get off the field last week, playing 100% of snaps and running 26 routes where he was targeted a team-high nine times that he turned into a 6/70/2 line. Over the last three weeks, Otton has a 20% target share (better than Mike Evans) and 140 receiving yards (2.5 times more than Chris Godwin).

With the Bucs unable to run the ball, Baker Mayfield will continue to throw the ball in Week 10 vs. a susceptible Tennessee secondary. The Titans have yet to allow a TE touchdown this season, but that seems to be more of an anomaly as they allow 4.1 catches for 43.5 yards to the position per game.

It’s a one-unit play at this price, which I’d play to +300.

Cade Otton prop: Anytime touchdown (+410 at FanDuel)