Best NFL Touchdown Props for Conference Championship: Firsker Showing Lots of Potential

Prop bet #1: The best square play on the board

The Chiefs face a tough defense this week, but Isiah Pacheco odds are favorable with all his carries, and the best projected neutral game script of the two games — the KC running back to score at +130 is a solid “square” TD this week.

He closed at -115 in Week 18 (scored) and +115 last week (scored). In total, Pacheco has hit paydirt in six straight games and is playing nearly 75% of the snaps.

There's a call for rain on Sunday, which would likely increase the run rate or the short passing game, which are both in Pacheco’s favor, as he has over 600 total yards during the TD streak and has become the No. 3 passing option.

M&T Bank Stadium is also very loud, as CJ Stroud and the Houston offensive line know, and if Patrick Mahomes gets near the goalline, it’s going to be tough to communicate audibles, which could lead to some more conservative play calling in tight.

The real worry here is with his health. He seemed to come out of the Divisional win fine but hasn’t practiced this week as of Friday morning. There's some risk with a reduced role or even worse, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire odds, as the immediate back-up, are +800 which is a great insurance price to add to the card.

I’ll go a full unit on Pacheco at a nine-week high of +130 while also adding 0.25 units on CEH at +800. 

Isiah Pacheco prop: anytime touchdown (+130 at FanDuel at 1u) 50% live boost available

Clyde Edwards-Helaire prop: anytime touchdown (+800 at PointsBet at 0.25u)

Prop bet #2: Middle class

Justice Hill odds caught my eye after he outsnapped Gus Edwards last week and took 57% of the snaps, compared to 34% for the starter, who seemingly hurt his hand late in the game, although he has practiced in full this week.

Hill was more efficient as a runner too, and has 5.3 yards per carry over the last five games compared to Edwards’ 4.0. Hill also took two of the four RB red-zone carries in the Divisional Round and will get a much easier matchup this week vs. the Chiefs, who finished 28th in EPA/rush, compared to the Texans, who had the No.1 rush defense, per success rate.

Lamar Jackson is always a vulture threat, but getting possibly a 60/40 back with some RZ role and the majority of the passing work at +330 for a TD with the market as low as +210 is a hell of a deal. Over the last two games Hill and Edwards have the same amount of red-zone rushes as the tide continues to move in Hill's favor in terms of preference. 

The Ravens run more than any other team in football and the projected rain and double-digit winds — as well as the potential positive game script — are all in Hills’ favor for a score. This is easily the best value of all the TDs in the +250 to +400 range in my opinion. Edwards is as low as +114, and the chances for a score are very even right now between the two backs. 

Justice Hill prop: anytime touchdown (+330 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Not for the faint of heart

Okay, I’ve reached the part of the article where it’s time to find the best longshot. 

The Lions TE situation is a little messy. Sam LaPorta has been limited all week with a knee injury he picked up in Week 18, and although he's played through it, he is at risk of further injuring himself which could open the door for a TE2 to emerge in the Detroit offense — especially near the goal line. 

Brock Wright has landed on IR and Zach Ertz has been signed. With so much on the line, it’s tough to see the former Eagle have a role with just six days with the playbook. His TD price is also +500, which isn't enough, given he could play zero snaps. 

If I’m taking a gamble here, it’s on Anthony Firkser odds at an unheard-of +1,900 (+8,000 for first and last). 

With Wright out, he's the No.2 TE if Ertz is still picking things up. Wright ran as many routes (16) as Jahmyr Gibbs last week and turned one target into 29 yards. Firkser played 11 snaps and ran four routes as the No. 3. 

The Harvard grad joined the roster in Week 14 and saw a season-high in snaps last week, up from four in the Wild Card Round. This is the furthest thing from a probable TD, but he has a path to No.2 snaps and an outside path at No.1 snaps.

If he scores, you also get to be one of a handful of people in the world who can say you knew he’d score. Sometimes bragging rights are more important, but it’s not common to get +1,900 odds for a TD with a player who has some outs and a path to a bigger role. Don’t expect many snaps, though.

It’s 0.25 units for me here to win 4.75.

Anthony Firkser prop: anytime touchdown (+1,900 at DraftKings) 30% boost available