Texans vs Bengals Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 10: Cincy Stoppers Subdue Stroud

C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans face off against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Stroud has been lighting up the NFL in his rookie season and will try to get his team above .500 with a victory, but it won't be easy against the red-hot Bengals, who've won four in a row.

NFL odds have the Bengals installed as 7-point home favorites with the Over/Under at 47 for this Week 10 clash. Here are my best free NFL picks for Texans vs. Bengals on November 12.

Texans vs Bengals odds

Texans vs Bengals predictions

C.J. Stroud is coming off an incredible performance where he threw for 470 yards and five touchdowns in a 39-37 victory against the Buccaneers. That said, this is a sell-high spot for a Texans squad that is extremely banged up and due for regression.

Although Stroud has excelled in his rookie season, he has still often looked like a first-year player when facing pressure, and playing on the road in Cincinnati will be tough. Stroud has the fifth-best passing grade (90.9) among qualifying QBs when kept clean in the pocket (per PFF), but he's just 30th with a grade of 37.7 under pressure.

It doesn't help that his best receiver Nico Collins is sidelined by an injury along with starting running Dameon Pierce while another key receiver Robert Woods is questionable. 

Houston has struggled on the ground, churning out just 3.3 yards per carry, and the Bengals have a good enough defense to scheme against a one-dimensional attack that will lean on Stroud. Keep in mind that this Bengals stop unit has allowed just 16 points per game in their last three contests despite facing potent offenses like the Bills, 49ers, and Seahawks during that span. 

On the other side of the ball, the Texans are hurting as well, even though cornerback Derek Stingley is expected to return after a lengthy absence. Safety Jimmie Ward and linebacker Henry To'oTo'o won't play and corner Steven Nelson is doubtful as well. 

Houston was already subpar on defense, sitting 24th in dropback EPA, and missing those starters will hurt against a Cincinnati offense that has been clicking. All-Pro QB Joe Burrow got off to a slow start this season due to a calf injury but he looks to be 100% now and has torched the 49ers and Bills in back-to-back games.

There are some injury concerns for Cincy as well with wide receiver Tee Higgins and defensive end Sam Hubbard ruled out. However, All-Pro wideout Ja'Marr Chase will play after an injury scare last week, and first-round rookie Myles Murphy is ready to contribute at end.

My best bet: Bengals -6.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Texans vs Bengals same-game parlay

Bengals -6.5

Bengals Under 107.5 rushing yards

Bengals team total Over 27.5

+800 at bet365

The O/U on Cincinnati's team rushing yards total looks way too high here. The Bengals are last in the league with 75.9 rushing yards per game, and even on their recent four-game winning streak, that number has nudged up to just 81.8 ypg. The Texans are allowing only 71.3 ypg on the ground over their last three contests, and they are holding opponents to just 3.5 yards per carry on the year. 

That said, the Bengals won't need to run the ball to score against a Texans side that surrendered 37 points to the Bucs last week. Houston ranks 24th in the league in defensive dropback EPA and plays a lot of zone coverage, which Burrow usually picks apart.

Cincinnati's offense struggled a bit at the start of the season with Burrow unable to move in the pocket due to a calf injury, but they are third in league in EPA and success rate over the last five weeks. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Texans vs Bengals spread and Over/Under analysis

The Bengals opened as 8-point favorites with the O/U at 46 for this clash. That line dropped as low as -6.5 before ticking up to Bengals -7. That said, Bengals -6.5 is still available at a slightly higher vig.

The total has ticked up to 47, which is a bit surprising when you consider that two of the Top 3 receivers for both teams have been absent in practice due to injuries. If those wideouts don't end up suiting up, money should come in on the Under. 

The Bengals struggled at the start of the season but have turned things around, going 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games. The Texans have outperformed preseason expectations thanks to Stroud and have gone 4-2 SU and ATS in their last six. 

Texans vs Bengals betting trend to know

The Texans have only hit the Over on their team total in seven of their last 20 games (-7.20 Units / -31% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Bengals.

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