NFL Week 8 Survivor Picks: Browns Take the Crown?

We're almost at the pivotal halfway point of the 2021 NFL season, and with his safe picks still perfect, Covers NFL ace Jason Logan looks to leverage the best survivor picks strategies for Week 8.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Oct 27, 2021 • 15:10 ET • 4 min read
Myles Garrett Cleveland Browns NFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The cold November rain is almost falling with October coming to an end. Luckily, our NFL survivor picks are keeping us warm. 

Our “safe” survivor selections are an unblemished 7-0 heading into Week 8 and our “savvy” picks – after a real shit start – are on a three-game run. But as the schedule shortens and the pick options dwindle, expect to see your respective survivor pool shrink in size. 

But not this week. We strive to survive with our Week 8 survivor pool picks. 

My pick: Cleveland Browns 

Injury issues could scare some off the Browns in Week 8, but it looks like most of those key bodies are back – perhaps even Baker Mayfield. Even with backup Case Keenum in the mix, Cleveland holds a projected win probability of 65.52 percent at home to Pittsburgh this Sunday. 

The Browns are by no means a safe play, especially in a divisional rivalry that’s produced a 5-8-1 SU mark for Cleveland since Mike Tomlin took the job in Pittsburgh. However, the Steelers are no longer the gatekeepers of the AFC North at 3-3 so far this year. Cleveland boasts the ninth-highest win percentage in Week 8 and its popularity among poolies reflects that, being selected as the survivor pick in just 0.1 percent of pools.  

This selection is a smart one, however, with very little future value in the Browns. They do play at Green Bay in the standalone Xmas Week slate – if your pool is counting that as a separate week – but do you really want to pick against the Packers at home in December? Thought not. 

Safe pick: Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are the belles of the survivor pool ball in Week 8. Cincinnati is taking on a downtrodden Jets team with a backup QB under center and owns an implied win probability of 83.33 percent. That’s the third-highest projected win rate on the board for a team that boasts little to no future value down the road. 

That’s why a whopping 44.5 percent of survivor pool players are picking the Bengals in Week 8. Cincy doesn’t show up on those weirdo weeks – Thanksgiving and Xmas – and plays some quality foes to finish off the second half of the schedule. Grab Burrow and Bengals while you can and live to see the midway mark of the season. 

Here’s a look at the Top 5 favorites, in terms of moneyline odds and implied probability, for Week 8:

Team Moneyline odds Implied probability
L.A. Rams -950 90.48%
Buffalo  -850 89.47%
Cincinnati -500 83.33%
Kansas City -450 81.82%
Arizona -290 74.36%

Odds above current at time of publish. Check live NFL moneyline odds and use our odds converter to convert any line to implied probability. 

Team to avoid: Seattle Seahawks

The default setting for some survivor pool players is simply selecting which ever available team is facing either the Texans, Lions, Jets, or Jaguars. And that leads us to Seattle, which owns an implied win probability of 63.77 percent in Week 8, hosting Jacksonville after a tough loss on Monday Night Football. 

The Seahawks are not only on a short week but could get caught looking ahead to a bye in Week 9 – and the potential return of Russell Wilson in Week 10. Add to that a handful of spiteful coaches on the other sidelines who were once under the employment of Seattle, and you may not feel so strongly about the Seahawks, even with the game at Lumen Field. 

That tricky spot hasn’t given poolies a pause in selecting Seattle in Week 8, with 3.1 percent of players pick them as their survivor go-to. That’s the fifth-most popular option but the 10th-highest win probability. Hmmmm… 

2021 survivor pool pick results

Week Survivor Pick Result Safe Pick Result
1 Minnesota LOSS L.A. Rams WIN
2 Pittsburgh LOSS Tampa Bay WIN
3 Kansas City LOSS Denver WIN
4 New Orleans LOSS Buffalo WIN
5 Baltimore WIN Minnesota WIN
6 Cincinnati WIN Indianapolis WIN
7 New England WIN Green Bay WIN

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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