The Pittsburgh Steelers are firmly in the playoff hunt, but the Cleveland Browns will be looking to spoil their plans today and secure a home win.
My Steelers vs. Browns predictions expect Cleveland to pull off the upset as 4.5-point underdogs at Huntington Bank Field.
Here are my free NFL picks for December 28, with kickoff set for 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.
Steelers vs Browns prediction
Steelers vs Browns Best bet: Browns moneyline (+146)
Heading into Sunday’s divisional clash, there’s a strong chance of an upset in the AFC North. The line has already shifted from the Cleveland Browns being 4.5-point underdogs to just 3-point ‘dogs.
A large part of that has been the suspension for DK Metcalf, which leaves the Pittsburgh Steelers without their star playmaker. Aaron Rodgers trusts Metcalf, which is why he accounts for double the targets of any other wideout or tight end.
He’s a big part of moving the chains for the Steelers offense, and without him, they could struggle against the fourth-best defense, per DVOA.
The Steelers are 4-3 on the road this season, but they’ve covered just once when they’re favorites on the road, underachieving in these road trips against supposedly easier teams.
The Browns have given up the second-fewest scrimmage yards per game (277.8), have the third-most sacks, and have the soon-to-be DMVP in Myles Garrett.
They’ve improved on offense, too, with Shedeur Sanders, averaging 16.6 points per game, only marginally more than the 15.8 they average without him.
However, you have to take their current injuries into account, and they pass the eye test a lot more with Sanders at QB.
He might not be the long-term answer, but he’s solid enough to get the Browns and their excellent defense across the line on home soil.
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Steelers vs Browns same-game parlay
Along with my best bet, I'm taking the game total to go Over 34.5 total points. The Over is 5-2 when the Steelers are road favorites, and with the Browns' offense looking better with Sanders at QB, this total should go high.
We’re finishing off the SGP by taking Harold Fannin Jr to score. The Browns' tight end now has six touchdowns on the season, of which four have come in the past four weeks.
With the Steelers giving up 10 TDs to tight ends this season, it makes Fannin the easy choice.
Steelers vs Browns SGP
- Browns moneyline
- Over 34.5
- Harold Fannin Jr. anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Touchdown Parlay!
Raheim Sanders looked good against Buffalo, running the ball 11 times. He’s scored already this season, back in Week 1, and has a great chance to do it again.
We’re finishing off by taking Marquez Valdes-Scantling to score for the Steelers. No Metcalf, which means somebody will take those targets, especially with this game being a close one.
Valdes-Scantling has Rodgers’ trust and scored just two weeks ago, and is the prime pass-catching option to step into Metcalf’s spot.
Steelers vs Browns SGP
- Browns moneyline
- Over 34.5
- Harold Fannin Jr. anytime touchdown
- Raheim Sanders anytime touchdown
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling anytime touchdown
Steelers vs Browns odds
- Spread: Steelers -4.5 (-108) | Browns +4.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: Steelers -230 | Browns +190
- Over/Under: Over 35.5 (-108) | Under 35.5 (-112)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Steelers vs Browns trend to know
Cleveland has covered the 1H spread in seven of its last 10 games at home. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Browns.
How to watch Steelers vs Browns
| Location | Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Sunday, December 28, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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