Russell Wilson Odds and Props for Week 15: Wilson Looks Wonderful in Detroit

The Denver Broncos are in the middle of an unlikely renaissance that has put them back into playoff contention in the AFC. At the center of this surge has been quarterback Russell Wilson, who may not be putting up the gaudiest numbers in the league, but has been consistently good nearly all year long.

The Week 15 odds are against the Broncos as they visit the suddenly vulnerable Detroit Lions, who have lost two of their last three. Wilson will need to be on his game to lead Denver to another improbable victory, but there are reasons to be optimistic about his performance tonight.

Read on to see what I think about the Russell Wilson odds this week in my free NFL picks for the Broncos vs. Lions on Saturday, December 16.

Be sure to also check out our Broncos vs. Lions picks along with our three favorite Broncos vs Lions prop bets!

Russell Wilson Week 15 prop picks

• Over 216.5 passing yards
• Over 216.5 pass yds/Over 1.5 pass TDs/Broncos +4.5

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Russell Wilson Week 15 prop pick

Over 216.5 passing yards (-115)

While everyone is praising Russell Wilson’s play in Denver, he hasn’t been able to put up the most prolific numbers when compared to the elite NFL quarterbacks. He’s averaging just Over 200 yards passing per game, and has just 23 touchdown passes on the season — hardly what we expect from a superstar quarterback in 2023.

However, it’s important to remember Wilson isn’t working with the most talented receiving corps around. And while his numbers may not look impressive, he’s stepped it up in important games and has been able to pad his numbers when given the opportunity.

He should be able to find plenty of chances on Saturday night against the Lions. Some of Detroit’s numbers look superficially good against the pass, but they're allowing 10.7 yards per completion and 6.7 yards per attempt, both of which rank among the worst in the league. In addition, they’ve struggled to generate much of a pass rush, averaging just 2.2 sacks per game this season.

This will be a tight game in which Denver may well be playing from behind for most of the night. If that’s the case, we can expect Russell to have to throw the ball, especially against a Detroit defense that has been among the best in the league against the run this year.

Whether Wilson has a great game or not, this is one week where he should rack up some yardage and hit the Over on his passing props.

Prop: Russell Wilson Over 216.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Russell Wilson Week 15 same-game parlay

Russell Wilson Over 216.5 passing yards

Russell Wilson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

Broncos +4.5

No-sweat promo available

+485 at DraftKings

Wilson hasn’t put up huge numbers when it comes to his yardage, but he’s been surprisingly consistent when it comes to getting the ball in the end zone. He's thrown at least one touchdown pass in every game this year, which means he’s always in range of hitting a modest touchdown prop.

This week, the line has been set at 1.5 passing scores. Wilson has surpassed this number in seven of his 13 starts, yet is considered an underdog to do so this week. Against a weaker-than-average Detroit secondary and in a game that should be close throughout, I’m taking Wilson to throw for at least two TDs — especially at that plus number. 

I’m also looking at this game in general and finding value on the Broncos. No matter what you think of Denver overall, it has turned the corner and should be valued as a competitive team at this point. The Broncos’ horrendous start on defense has left some of their numbers looking awful overall, but they’ve only allowed an average of just 15.6 points over their last seven games, during which they’ve gone 6-1.

I like the Broncos with what I see as a generous 4.5-point spread. If this is the back-and-forth game I expect, it could easily be settled by a field goal, and there are plenty of common four-point gaps that we protect ourselves against as well. I especially like that this bet pairs well with our confidence in Wilson to have a strong game — something that bodes well for Denver’s chances on Saturday night.

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