The Detroit Lions will attempt to bounce back from a loss as they return to Ford Field to host the Denver Broncos tonight.
Despite coming off an upset defeat in Chicago, Detroit sits atop the NFC North with a 9-4 record heading into Week 15. Meanwhile, Denver won six of its last seven games to climb above .500 and won't be a pushover here.
NFL odds have the Lions installed as 5-point home favorites for this Week 15 showdown with the Over/Under at 47.5. Here are my best free NFL picks for the Broncos vs. Lions on Saturday, December 16.
Make sure to also check out our favorite Broncos vs. Lions prop picks along with our Russell Wilson spotlight props.
Broncos vs Lions odds
Broncos vs Lions predictions
The Detroit Lions might have a two-game lead atop the NFC North but they've looked vulnerable over the past couple of months. They've gone 3-4 ATS in their last seven games, a span that began with an ugly 38-6 loss to the Ravens. They bounced back from that defeat to beat the mediocre Raiders at Ford Field the following week, but that's been the last truly impressive win on their resume.
Since then, Detroit has barely held off comeback attempts from the sub-.500 Chargers and Saints, had to mount a comeback of its own to edge the Bears in Week 11, and were upset in a pair of contests vs. the Packers and Bears.
While Detroit's offense remains highly efficient (especially when playing indoors), its defense has regressed massively. Since Week 7, the Lions are 30th in the NFL in defensive EPA while ranking 29th in success rate.
The Denver Broncos defense has experienced the complete opposite turnaround after looking historically bad at the start of the year. The Broncos haven't allowed more than 22 points in their last eight contests and are holding opponents to just 16.0 points per game during that span.
Denver hasn't been quite as impressive on offense but it's been getting the job done. Quarterback Russell Wilson is sixth in the league in pass efficiency rating despite some shaky blocking in front of him and the ground game has been solid, ranking 10th in the league in yards per carry (4.3) and rush success rate.
With the Broncos going 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games, grab them with the points here.
My best bet: Broncos +4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Broncos vs Lions same-game parlay
Broncos +4.5
David Montgomery anytime TD
Courtland Sutton Over 52.5 receiving yards
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David Montgomery has been a goal-line stud for the Lions, punching it into the end zone at least once in eight of 10 games this year. For their part, the Broncos have surrendered 13 rushing touchdowns this season.
With Jerry Jeudy having a horrific performance last week, expect Wilson to target Courtland Sutton as much as possible. Sutton has at least 53 receiving yards in each of his last five games and will look to exploit a vulnerable Detroit secondary.
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Broncos vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Lions at -4, and early money has come in on them with most books at Detroit -5 and a few offering -5.5 by Tuesday. The total has also seen early movement with the O/U quickly moving from 46.5 to 47.5.
The Lions were an ATS darling at the start of the season but they're a modest 3-4 ATS in their last seven. They've struggled against mobile QBs and their aerial attack has significantly declined in outdoor games so they'll hope to get back on track at home. With an efficient offense and leaky pass defense, the Over is 5-1 in their last six games indoors on turf.
However, Denver has been an Under machine, with seven of its last eight games going below the total.
The Broncos are fresh off a 24-7 win against the Chargers, which would have been even more lopsided if Jeudy hadn't dropped an easy deep pass from Wilson while also failing to get his feet inbounds on what would have been a touchdown grab.
Broncos vs Lions betting trend to know
The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games while the Lions are 3-4 ATS during the same span. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Lions.
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Broncos vs Lions game info
| Location: | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, December 16, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
| Opening odds: | Lions -4, O/U 46.5 |
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