Ravens vs Buccaneers Thursday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Godwin Eats up Targets in Primetime

Week 8 of the NFL season comes at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pretty fast, hosting the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football.

Tampa Bay is still reeling from the worst loss of the 2022 season, falling 21-3 to Carolina as a 13-point road favorite last Sunday. That loss was the Bucs' fourth in five games, while they lug an 0-5 against the spread skid into this non-conference clash.

Baltimore hasn’t been much kinder to NFL bettors, having failed to cover the spread in four straight games (0-3-1 ATS), and has swapped wins and losses in the first seven weeks of football. The Ravens escaped a tight 23-20 divisional battle with Cleveland in Week 7 but fell short as 6.5-point chalk.

Well, at least someone will walk away an ATS winner in Week 8. 

I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Ravens vs. Buccaneers on October 27.

Ravens vs Buccaneers best odds

Ravens vs Buccaneers picks and predictions

The injury list has been a happening place for the Buccaneers since the summer, with a rash of ailments plaguing just about every unit for this franchise. Week 8 is no exception. 

The Bucs have a short turnaround before hosting Baltimore, giving little recovery time to a receiving corps that had three of its top four wideouts and the starting tight end not participating in Monday’s practice. The lone healthy target is WR Chris Godwin, who funnily enough, had been slowed by injuries since Week 1.

Godwin has been busy since getting healthy in October, recording a combined 25 targets for 13 catches and a grand total of 138 yards in the past two games. His snap counts have spiked in those outings, with 64 and 63 plays in the past two weeks. Those numbers could continue to climb given the state of the Buccaneers’ WRs. 

Top receiver Mike Evans, who was targeted 15 times in Week 7, was hampered by an ankle injury at the end of the game and is questionable, as is fellow wideout Russell Gage, who was targeted five times versus Carolina. Tight end Cameron Brate is dealing with a neck injury and veteran WR Julio Jones has been shelved the previous three games with a bum knee.

The Tampa Bay offense and quarterback Tom Brady are under fire after a toothless attack in Week 7, in which the Bucs averaged 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Overall, Brady and the passing game aren’t threatening foes with the deep ball (7.5 intended air yards vs. 5.3 completed air yards) and while Brady isn’t forcing it — entering Week 8 with only one interception — head coach Todd Bowles is begging for some explosive shots downfield.

“We commend him for not throwing picks, but we need more big plays on offense, more consistent plays from everybody,” Bowles told the media about Brady and the passing attack.

If Tampa Bay is going to let it fly out there in Week 8, Godwin looks like the best — maybe only — option and the Ravens’ secondary seems susceptible to some home run plays. Baltimore currently has starting corners Marcus Peters (quad) and Marlon Humphrey (hamstring) missing practice Monday and is already without S Marcus Williams. 

On the season, the Ravens’ pass defense has been hit-and-miss, allowing 261.3 yards per game (26th) and ranking 23rd in EPA per dropback allowed with opposing passers enjoying a 48.3% success rate (26th). Baltimore has slowed down quality QBs like Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, but the secondary could be dangerously thin for Thursday Night Football.

Godwin’s yardage prop for Week 8 is up to 72.5 yards – a mark he’s eclipsed only once so far in 2022 (95 yards versus Pittsburgh in Week 6). However, up until Sunday’s loss, he had topped his receiving yards total in three straight games. Even against the Panthers, Godwin was extremely busy with seven catches on 13 targets but only managed 43 yards as Carolina started protecting against the pass with a lead in the second half.

During his time alongside Brady, Godwin has been targeted more than 10 times in nine games, easily going over his Week 8 projection of 72.5 yards in all but two of those contests, including Week 7. He’s posted 100-plus receiving efforts in five of those contests.

Given his recent activity in terms of targets and snap counts, Bowles pushing for explosive plays against a depleted Ravens secondary, and being potentially the only healthy starting WR for Brady, I like Godwin to go Over this total of 72.5 yards on Thursday night.

My best bet: Chris Godwin Over 72.5 receiving yards (-110)

Ravens vs Buccaneers spread analysis

The look-ahead line for this non-conference clash was at Tampa Bay -3 last week, a point shorter than the offseason spread set in the summer. But following the Bucs’ bad showing at Carolina last weekend, this official Week 8 opener hit the board at Tampa Bay -1.5 and quickly jumped the fence with Baltimore as the favorite and ran as high as -2.5 before coming back to Bucs +1.5.

Tampa Bay has a number of injuries popping up on the depth chart, especially on offense, and little time to rest and recover before the mid-week matchup. The Buccaneers have already soured many bettors with their inability to cover the spread and that early money is fading a busted offense under Brady that ranks out 28th in points per play.

The Ravens are also a tough team to back against the spread, given their terrible tendency to crumble in the second half. Baltimore sits No. 6 in first-half defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders but sees that metric slip to 26th in the final two quarters. That’s led to a series of blown leads and blown bets for Baltimore backers.

According to DraftKings, the Ravens’ second-half snafus aren’t a concern for early action when compared to Tampa Bay’s total ineptitude, with 79% of bets and 89% of handle backing visiting Baltimore on Thursday night.

Ravens vs Buccaneers Over/Under analysis

This total officially opened at 44 points on Sunday night and dwindled to as low as 43 points before jumping up to 45 points over the past two days. DraftKings books are reporting 71% of bet count and 75% of the early total handle riding on the Over this Thursday night.

While there are injuries to both offensive units, the defensive side of the ball is running thin for Baltimore and Tampa Bay as well. 

The Bucs have standouts like DE Akiem Hicks, S Antoine Winfield Jr., and CB Carlton Davis III listed as questionable, while the Ravens’ depth chart has both starting corners Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey questionable along with DE Calais Campbell.

Overall, neither defense has played up to standards this season. Tampa Bay has started to show cracks, sliding from No. 1 in EPA allowed per play through the first three weeks to 27th in that advanced metric the past four games. Baltimore has struggled for an identity under new DC Mike MacDonald all season, boasting the 29th-worst EPA allowed/play in the league.

Heading into Week 8, the Ravens and Bucs are among the better Under bets in football with Baltimore at 2-5 O/U and Tampa Bay at 1-6 O/U.

Ravens vs Buccaneers betting trend to know

Since Tom Brady showed up in pirate waters in 2020, the Buccaneers have closed as underdogs in only six games including the postseason. Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in those contests when catching the points, with a 2-4 Over/Under record in those outings. Should this spread stay put, this would be the first time in 2022 Brady & Co. were betting underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Buccaneers.

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