Ravens vs Buccaneers TNF Prop Bets: Gus Edwards Benefits From Run-Heavy Gameplan

Tom Brady enters Thursday night as a home dog for just the 13th time in his NFL career as the embarrassed Tampa Bay Buccaneers host Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in primetime.

The Ravens have fully committed to the run with Gus Edwards back and could have success as the Bucs were torched on the ground by D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard last week. Mike Evans and the passing game also have a great matchup vs. this Baltimore secondary.

We've covered all the bases in our Ravens vs. Buccaneers picks and predictions but I also give you my best NFL prop picks below. 

Ravens vs Buccaneers props

• Evans Over 68.5 receiving yards
• Jackson Under 33.5 yards longest reception
• Edwards Over 45.5 rushing yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Ravens vs Buccaneers TNF props

Can I have your autograph?

There has been a lot of talk about the Bucs’ run rate on first down and I was surprised to see it was just 31% on the season, per TeamRankings. On first down, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the 31st-ranked EPA/rush but these first-down rushes might be blown out of proportion. 

Last week vs. the Panthers, Tom Brady passed on first down 14 times compared to four rushes while the game was within one score. Tampa is still passing at the highest rate in the league at 67% and they get a great matchup vs. the Baltimore Ravens’ 23rd-ranked pass defense in EPA/dropback.

Mike Evans took some heat last week with some bad drops but still finished with nine catches for 96 yards on 15 targets. He had a 31% target share last week and since Week 4, Evans has 25% of the team’s total air yards which is impressive because Brady has averaged 317.25 passing yards over that stretch.

With Julio Jones likely out, Russell Gage leaving Sunday with a hamstring, and Chris Godwin catching shorter passes of late, Evans Over 68.5 yards looks great Thursday. Tampa could be playing from behind again and with a running game that has just 2.9 yards per carry over the last two weeks, it will be Evans carrying the offense again.

The receiver was DNP on the “projected” Monday practice report but he is dealing with elbow and ankle injuries but played 88% of the snaps last week and is likely just getting some rest on the short turnaround.

Mike Evans Prop: Over 68.5 receiving yards (-110)

Running heavily

The Baltimore Ravens have gone all-in on the run game of late and with a healthy Gus Edwards, we could see another lopsided run approach on Thursday.

In Week 7 vs. the Browns’ 22nd-ranked defense in EPA/dropback, Baltimore passed the ball at 30% over 63 total plays. After a hot start, Lamar Jackson has cooled significantly as a passer. His completion percentage since Week 4 is 59.6% compared to 64% in Weeks 1 through 3. He also ranks 21st in adjusted yards/attempt over the last four weeks.

Tampa is also a team you can run against as it sits in the bottom half of the league in EPA/rush and success rate vs. the run. D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard rushed for 181 yards over 26 carries vs. the Tampa defense last week. Baltimore could be leaning on the run again this week which would cut into Jackson’s pass volume.

Instead of hitting the Under on his passing total that sits at 206.5 which is 14 yards shorter than last week, I’m hitting the Under 33.5 yards for Jackson’s longest completion. 

Jackson has failed to complete a passer longer than 31 yards in four straight weeks and heading into Week 7, Jackson hadn’t completed a pass longer than 21 yards in three straight weeks. Over this four-week stretch, Jackson has a 7.58 aDOT compared to 10.8 aDOT in Weeks 1 through 3.

Jackson isn’t looking downfield lately and with a lack of talented receivers, the quarterback could struggle vs. Tampa’s No. 5 defenses in success rate vs. the pass. Mark Andrews was also DNP on the Monday practice report. 

The potential loss of Antoine Winfield is significant for the Bucs but the game script is in our favor and the low volume also helps.  

Lamar Jackson Prop: Under 33.5 yards longest completion (-115)

Give me some Gus

I'm keeping it simple with the final play here with Gus Edwards Over 45.5 rushing yards.

This is not the same Tampa rush defense of seasons past. Hubbard and Foreman ran for 7.6 yards per carry vs. this defense last week and Tampa’s 4.4 ypc on the season puts them right in the middle of the league and they sit in the bottom half in EPA/rush and success rate vs. the run.

Baltimore is averaging 5.5 ypc over its last three weeks (vs. CLE, NYG, and CIN — all teams with similar success rates vs. the run as the Bucs) and running the ball at 53% which is the sixth-highest rate over that stretch.

Edwards was playing in his first game last week since 2020 and saw 16 of the team’s 32 running-back carries. Justice Hill and Kenyan Drake will spell the hard-running back but it should be Edwards getting the majority of the carries and what will likely be another run-heavy approach offensively from the Ravens on a short week. 

Edwards was limited on Monday’s estimation injury report which is a great sign that he handled the Week 7 load well. Any RB in a Lamar Jackson offense should be able to total 46 yards rushing with double-digit carries. Edwards would need just 11 carries at 4.4 ypc to hit the Over and he has the potential game script in his favor as a slight road favorite.

Gus Edwards Prop: Over 45.5 rushing yards (-109)

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