Rams vs Cardinals Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 12: Stafford & Co. Roll in the Desert

Ever since Sean McVay became the Rams head coach in 2017, Los Angeles has absolutely dominated Arizona. Find out why we expect that to continue when McVay and Matthew Stafford head to Glendale in our Rams vs. Cardinals betting picks.

Nov 26, 2023 • 08:12 ET • 4 min read
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The Arizona Cardinals are set to host the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12 odds. The Cardinals have the second-worst record in the league at 2-9 but things have been trending in the right direction after Kyler Murray returned to the team two weeks ago.

Meanwhile, the Rams are trending in the opposite direction and have dropped six of their last nine contests. Bookmakers are expecting a close game with NFL odds installing the Rams as slim 1.5-point road favorites.

Here are my best free NFL picks for Rams vs. Cardinals on November 26.

Rams vs Cardinals odds

Rams vs Cardinals predictions

Optimism is high after Kyler Murray returned from an ACL injury two weeks ago to provide a spark for the Arizona Cardinals' sputtering offense.

That said, his impact might be a bit overestimated when you consider that the Cards scored a total of just 41 points against the Texans and Falcons with Murray at the helm. Murray has given them stability at quarterback but he's not exactly lighting it up, and this Arizona offense still has a low ceiling due to a lack of quality receivers and poor blocking up front.

Let's not forget that when it comes to the other side of the ball, the Cardinals are still among the worst teams in the league. The Cards are 27th in the league in EPA while ranking 31st in success rate and they've been particularly vulnerable through the air. Arizona also enters this contest 30th in the league in pressure rate, which could prove especially detrimental against Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford.

Stafford has a passing grade of just 51.8 under pressure according to Pro Football Focus, but that number surges up to 91.0 when he's kept clean in the pocket — the fifth-best number in the league.

While All-Pro receiver Cooper Kupp has been limited in practice and may not play on Sunday, let's keep in mind that the Rams offense didn't miss a beat when Kupp was sidelined to begin the year.

Rookie Puka Nakua even blossomed as the No. 1 WR, and he's on track to play along with running back Kyren Williams, who was hitting his stride before injuring his ankle in Week 6. Williams rushed for a career-high 158 yards in that game and it just happened to be against Arizona, with the Rams prevailing by a score of 26-9.

That brings me to the final reason why I like the Rams here: coach Sean McVay knows how to beat the Cards. The Rams are 12-2 straight up and 11-2-1 against the spread against the Cardinals since McVay took over in 2017.

In fact, Murray has just one career victory against his NFC West rivals.

My best bet: Rams moneyline (-117 at Pinnacle)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Rams vs Cardinals same-game parlay

Rams moneyline

Over 44.5

Kyler Murray Under 34.5 rushing yards

I mentioned that the Cards have one of the worst defenses in the league, but the Rams stop unit hasn't been that much better. The Rams are 22nd in the league in defensive EPA and 23rd in opponent third-down percentage. With both defenses struggling and Arizona's attack getting a recent boost with the return of Murray and RB James Conner, I'll go against the line movement and play the Over in this SGP.

While I just criticized L.A.'s stop unit, they do have a pretty sharp defensive coordinator in Raheem Morris, and he has historically done a good job of limiting Murray from using his legs. Not only is Murray just 1-7 SU in eight career games against the Rams, but he's been held below 15 rushing yards in six of them.

In Murray's last two games against the Rams, he totaled just four carries for 14 yards on the ground. A mush-rush strategy, along with the use of Ernest Jones as a spy, should help L.A. contain Murray as a runner. 

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Rams vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread saw plenty of movement throughout the week, but it's currently right back to where it began with the Rams at -1.5. Early money had come in on the Cardinals, flipping them to -1.5 faves by Monday, before buyback on the Rams brought it back to the other side. The total opened at 46.5 and money has poured in on the Under, dropping it to 44.5. 

The Cardinals looked like the worst team in the league at the midway point of the season, but they've been more competitive in the last two weeks. Arizona edged the Falcons 25-23 at home in Week 10 before losing a close contest on the road against the Texans last week. It's no coincidence that this turnaround happened when Murray and Conner returned to the lineup.

Meanwhile, the Rams outperformed expectations for the first few weeks but regression has set in and they've gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games. That said, the one game they covered during that span was that 26-9 win over the Cardinals. 

Rams vs Cardinals betting trend to know

Los Angeles is 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 games against Arizona. Find more NFL betting trends for Rams vs. Cardinals.

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Rams vs Cardinals game info

Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Date: Sunday, November 26, 2023
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Cardinals +1.5, 46.5 O/U

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