Raiders vs Chargers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 4: Palmer Gets Charged Up

Week 4 in the NFL features an AFC West showdown between the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers. Both of these teams are 1-2 and another loss would give them an uphill climb toward a playoff spot.

Unfortunately for Raiders fans, they might be without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo,who has yet to pass concussion protocol. With that in mind, NFL betting lines opened with the Chargers as 6-point home favorites before shortening to -5. Here are my best free Raiders vs. Chargers free NFL picks and predictions for October 1.

Raiders vs Chargers odds

Raiders vs Chargers predictions

With Jimmy Garoppolo's status up in the air for Sunday, I'm steering clear of playing the spread here. Especially with mediocre journeyman Brian Hoyer and untested fourth-round rookie Aidan O'Connell next on deck at QB. But I do like the Chargers offense to have success against the Raiders defense here.

The Raiders are second-last in the league in opponent passer rating and rank 29th in defensive dropback EPA. That should make for a juicy matchup for Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who has thrown for more than 300 yards in back-to-back games. However, while I like the Over on Herbert's passing yards there's another prop I like even more; the Over 45.5 receiving yards for Joshua Palmer. 

Keenan Allen is the Bolts' top receiver, but he has a much higher O/U total (84.5 yards) after a monster performance last week, and he primarily lines up in the slot where the Raiders' best defensive back, Nate Hobbs, resides. 

Palmer tends to line up more on the outside and he should see plenty of targets now that Mike Williams is done for a year with a torn ACL. Williams is typically Herbert's second-favorite target and when he missed time last year, Palmer picked up the slack. Williams played in just six snaps between Weeks 9 and 13 last season, and in those five contests, Palmer racked up 31 catches on 46 targets for 372 receiving yards. 

The Chargers drafted wideout Quentin Johnson in the first round this year, but the rookie is still a work in progress. We saw that last week when Williams tore his ACL late in the third quarter and Herbert didn't look Johnson's way once but hooked up with Palmer on a 30-yard touchdown (albeit on a tipped pass). Palmer finished that game with four catches for 66 yards and he should see enough of an uptick in targets in this contest to eclipse his modest receiving yards total. 

My best bet: Joshua Palmer Over 45.5 receiving yards (-114)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Raiders vs Chargers same-game parlay

Josh Palmer Over 45.5 rec yds (-114)
Chargers TT Over 27.5 (-102)
Keenan Allen Over 84.5 rec yds (-114)

+543 at FanDuel

It seems like the Chargers never play up to their talent and often struggle to separate from opponents they should demolish. That said, the Chargers offense should be able to put up points against a Vegas defense that ranks 29th in the league in EPA and 30th in success rate. Especially since the Raiders' two best defenders (edge Maxx Crosby, and Hobbs) are now listed as questionable. 

I prefer the O/U number for Palmer's receiving yards more than Allen but I still like Allen to have a big game — especially if Hobbs sits out. These numbers are reasonable enough for both receivers to eclipse, especially with L.A.'s lack of receiving depth at the moment and new OC Kellen Moore's willingness to attack downfield.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Raiders vs Chargers spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread hit the board on Monday with the Chargers installed as 6-point faves, but that number has been bet down to -5 or -4.5 as of Saturday. The total has also seen plenty of movement, going as high as 51 early on Monday before the extent of Garoppolo's injury was known. That soon plummeted to as low as 47.5, but has since ticked up to around 48.5.

The Raiders opened their season by edging the Broncos by a single point — a victory that looks far less impressive after Denver's horrific loss last week. They lost by 28 points as 7.5-point pups in Week 2 against the Bills and followed up on that with a 23-18 loss to the Steelers at home last week.

Garoppolo hasn't looked great as their new QB and has already thrown six interceptions, but he's better than their other options. He averages an impressive 7.5 yards per attempt and actually leads the league with 7.8 air yards per completion thanks to the instant connection he's had with All-Pro wideout Davante Adams.

Coaching and execution continue to be major issues for the Chargers who often seem to find ways to lose. They lost close contests in Weeks 1 and 2 and enjoyed some rare good fortune in last week's 28-24 win against the Vikings. The Bolts also have some key injuries to monitor, with their best pass rusher, Joey Bosa, listed as questionable and they could be down their top three safeties as well.

It's also worth mentioning that there won't be much of a home-field advantage for the Chargers in this one since the Raiders have a short trip to L.A. and SoFi Stadium is typically filled with Silver and Black fans. 

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