The Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos are set to square off on Thursday Night Football.
Denver is a 10-point home favorite for this rivalry showdown, and the game script is a big reason why my Raiders vs. Broncos player props are backing superstar tight end Brock Bowers.
Here are my favorite NFL picks for the Raiders vs. Broncos on November 6.
Raiders vs Broncos TNF props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Geno Smith |
Under 9.5 rushing yards | -105 |
 J.K. Dobbins |
Under 16.5 rushing attempts | -130 |
| Brock Bowers |
Over 65.5 receiving yards | -110 |
Geno Smith Under 9.5 rushing yards (-105)
Las Vegas Raiders QB Geno Smith isn't the most athletic quarterback around. The 35-year-old has rushed for fewer than 9.5 yards in four straight games, totaling just 15 yards on 14 carries over that span.
The Denver Broncos have an elite defense that swarms quarterbacks and doesn't give any space to make plays with their feet.
They are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game (11.7) to opposing QBs on a league-low 3.0 yards per attempt. And that's despite facing a slew of mobile passers like Jaxson Dart, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, and Daniel Jones.
J.K. Dobbins Under 16.5 rushing attempts (-130)
On the surface, this looks like a high-usage game for J.K. Dobbins, who has rushed for 695 yards on 5.1 yards per pop. But this is a surprisingly bad matchup.
Almost 64% of Dobbins' carries come on outside zone and man duo plays. The Raiders are eighth in the league in yards allowed per carry (3.7) against both run types. They are also in the Top 10 in defensive explosive run rate, so Dobbins might have a tough time ripping runs into the second level.
Dobbins has finished with fewer than 16.5 carries in eight of nine games this year — including both of Denver's double-digit wins. If he's running with less efficiency than usual, the Broncos won't feed him the ball.
Brock Bowers Over 65.5 receiving yards (-110)
Vegas traded away No. 1 wide receiver Jakobi Meyers on Tuesday, which should mean an even higher target share for Brock Bowers. The tight end racked up 1,194 receiving yards as a rookie last year and had 103 yards in Week 1 this season.
However, he picked up a knee injury in Week 2, and his mobility was compromised. Since he was clearly less than 100%, the Raiders shut him down for a month and got him back at full strength.
That paid off last week with Bowers returning to the lineup to haul in 12 receptions for 127 yards against the Jaguars.
The Broncos have a strong pass defense, but have struggled to defend tight ends lately. They gave up six receptions and 77 yards to Dalton Schultz last week, and surrendered 154 yards to the Giants TE duo of Daniel Bellinger and Theo Johnson in Week 7.
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Raiders vs Broncos TNF prop betting card
- Smith u9.5 rushing yards (-105)
- Dobbins u16.5 rushing attempts (-130)
- Bowers o65.5 receiving yards (-110)
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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