It’s a divisional showdown at Mile High with the 7-2 Denver Broncos hosting the 2-6 Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday, November 6.
My top NFL picks for the Box Nix odds are calling for the second-year quarterback to air it out and lead the Broncos to a convincing Week 10 win on Thursday Night Football.
Bo Nix prop pick
Bo Nix best bet: Over 219.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has averaged 257 passing yards per home game, including 284 per over his past three starts at Empower Field at Mile High.
The Las Vegas Raiders have also been gashed through the air and allowed 235 passing yards, a 71.8% completion rate, and 8.3 yards per attempt during their active three-game road losing streak.
It’s also led to Vegas giving up a monster 37.1 points per game throughout the skid.
Nix and the Broncos will lean on the running game, but I also anticipate the Raiders showing up in this divisional matchup on a short week for Denver to need to attack through the air just enough for the franchise quarterback to go Over this passing yards total.
While the Broncos lead the AFC West, they’ve also lost their lone divisional game, so making a statement on Thursday Night Football ahead of another home game against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11 is paramount. Topping the Raiders also presents an opportunity to further strengthen their divisional lead and grasp on a postseason berth.
Additionally, Denver ranks first in both pass block win rate and PFF pass block grade, while Vegas has generated pressure on opposing quarterbacks at the 10th-lowest clip.
Nix’s completion percentage skyrockets from 46.8% when pressured to 65.8% from a clean pocket, so I expect a lot of easy pitch-and-catch completions for him Thursday.
Bo Nix same-game parlay
Bo Nix Over 219.5 passing yards
Broncos -9
J.K. Dobbins anytime touchdown
In addition to Vegas' defensive struggles on the road, the Raiders have only scored 30 total points during the winless streak to lose by an average of 27.3.
So, with the Broncos ranked fourth in defensive DVOA and eighth in PFF defense grade while allowing the fewest yards and fourth-lowest EPA per play, Denver will cover the number in a convincing win.
Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins has failed to find the end zone in four consecutive games after scoring four times through the first five weeks.
He’s handled six red-zone carries during the touchdown drought, and I’m backing him to break through and score in Week 10 with the Raiders tied for the third-most touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs.
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