As the weather cools, NFL betting action heats up with Week 12 odds on the board.
Whether you like favorites, dogs, Overs or Unders, the first step in winning your wager is getting the best of the number.
I help you do that each Sunday night as I dig into the opening lines, take the pulse of the public, size up the sharps, and forecast market moves.
Here are my favorite NFL picks to bet “Now” and some you can think about “Later” in Week 12.
NFL predictions: Week 12 bet now, bet later picks
- Panthers at 49ers (-6.5): Bet Now
- Bills at Texans (+3.5): Bet Later
- Buccaneers at Rams (Over 49): Bet Now
- Colts at Chiefs (Over 49): Bet Later
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5): Bet Now
The San Francisco 49ers got the band back together in Week 11, and it was music to the ears of anyone who laid the points vs. Arizona.
With Brock Purdy back under center and WR Ricky Pearsall in the lineup, San Francisco’s offense almost has every key piece in play. It amassed 41 points on just 281 yards, thanks in part to three takeaways from the 49ers defense.
San Francisco welcomes the Carolina Panthers to the Bay Area for a Monday matchup in Week 12. The Panthers are ripe for a letdown spot after a thrilling comeback overtime win over Atlanta on Sunday, which was helped along by injuries to Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. and star WR Drake London.
Now, the Panthers cross the country for their second straight road game and their third away contest in three weeks. Keep an eye on the practice work of QB Bryce Young, who went down twice with two different injuries in Week 11.
I’m grabbing the red-hot Niners under the key number of a touchdown right now.
Best odds to bet 49ers -6.5 right now
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (+3.5) Bet Later
The Buffalo Bills’ shootout win over Tampa Bay looked much better than the Houston Texans squeaking out a victory in Tennessee. And because of that, we’re seeing this Thursday Night Football spread open Buffalo -3.5 and start to climb to as high as -4.5 on Sunday night.
I think we’ll see this stretch even further once news on Houston QB C.J Stroud starts to trickle out closer to Thursday. He’s been in concussion protocol since Week 9 and was still suffering symptoms ahead of Week 11, leaving little time to get right and clear those hurdles before Thursday.
If this spread hits -5 and Bills money comes hot and heavy – like it will in prime time – bookmakers won’t mess around and will blow through dead numbers, opening the window for a possible Houston +6 later in the week.
The Texans defense remains one of the stingiest stop units in the league and could be the best defense Buffalo has faced all season. Thursday games produce funky results, which have kept underdogs live in mid-week matchups.
If you like Houston and the points at home, wait for more later in the week.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (Over 49): Bet Now
Even without his best weapons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield makes magic happen.
He willed Tampa Bay for most of Sunday’s shootout with Buffalo but couldn’t do it on his own. The Bucs still scored 32 points, recorded 21 first downs, and totaled 367 yards vs. the Bills.
They hope to have some of those missing pieces back in Week 12. Tampa Bay was down WR Chris Godwin and RB Bucky Irving, but both players put in limited practice work last week, which trends toward a positive status against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday Night Football.
Los Angeles is coming off a grueling divisional battle with the Seahawks’ stingy defense in Week 11. The Rams only had the ball for 22:11 and totaled just 249 yards, yet somehow won 21-19 – thanks in part to turnovers and a missed game-winning field goal from Seattle.
The Bucs defense doesn’t pose as much of a threat. Tampa Bay allowed 317 passing yards and three touchdowns to Josh Allen, so things are looking rosy for Matt Stafford and this L.A. attack.
The total opened as low as 49 points, but most books are up to 49.5 with juice on the Over rising, signifying an eventual move to 50 points. Given the next key number is 51, bookies won’t wait to move to 50.5 if Over money keeps coming.
Best odds to bet Over 49 right now
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (Over 49): Bet Later
This total opened as high as 50.5 at some shops and is slimming faster than the Kansas City Chiefs’ playoff chances. It’s dropped to 49 points on Sunday night.
Every game is now a “must-win” for Kansas City after a tight divisional loss at Denver on Sunday, and KC gets to return to Arrowhead Stadium to face another of the AFC’s top teams. The Chiefs average almost 29 points per home game, compared to the road, where they’ve scored more than 22 only once.
The Indianapolis Colts are fresh off a bye week, having scored 29 points or more in eight of their 10 games. On the other side, Indianapolis’ defensive chops have wobbled since Week 6, sliding down the advanced metrics after giving up 24+ points in four of its last six contests.
Keep an eye on the total as it ticks down.
Overwhelming Under opinion on opening lines screams sharp action, and books could keep hacking away at this number, with the next key stop at 48 points. There could be buyback for the Over later in the week.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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