Week 18 is loaded with plus-money prop value, and the key isn’t always chasing names — it’s betting the situation.
Back the Rookie of the Year favorite as he looks to pad his resume in a high-volume matchup, target offenses with favorable matchups rather than just big names, and don’t overlook the legs of a division-chasing quarterback scrambling toward the end zone.
With stakes high and motivation everywhere, this is prime time for smart, plus-money NFL picks.
NFL Week 18 Predictions: Best plus money bets
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Tyler Shough |
Over 1.5 passing TDs | +142 |
 Chris Oladokun |
200+ passing yards | +490 |
 Trevor Lawrence |
30+ rushing yards | +280 |
Tyler Shough Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Tyler Shough is making a serious push for OROY honors, and even in a lost season, that storyline gives the New Orleans Saints' offense added momentum heading into Week 18. Chris Olave will be sidelined, but Shough will benefit from increased volume and a favorable matchup against an Atlanta defense on a short week.
Shough has attempted 209 passes over his last six games, including 124 in three indoor contests, while averaging more than 300 passing yards per game during that span. The last three quarterbacks to face the Atlanta Falcons have combined for seven touchdowns and nearly 1,000 yards.
As the current betting favorite for OROY, Shough should have every opportunity to shine, and the play-calling is likely to reflect it.
Chris Oladokun 200+ passing yards
Is Kansas City Chiefs' third-stringer Chris Oladokun a good quarterback? Not really.
However, is this an indoor matchup against a Las Vegas Raiders defense that appears to have checked out as a strong value spot? Absolutely.
Las Vegas has already mentally moved on, and the defense could be unmotivated following last week’s Maxx Crosby drama and a rough season overall. Oladokun struggled against the Broncos last week, but at around +500 to throw for just 200 yards, the price is hard to ignore.
He needs only a couple of big YAC plays to make this prop live. At 137.5 passing yards, it’s the lowest number you’ll see, and one or two missed tackles could blow this Over wide open. THE BLITZ ranks this as one of the top passing prop Overs on the slate.
Trevor Lawrence 30+ rushing yards
Why is Trevor Lawrence listed at just +200 to score a touchdown? Because he’s been very active with his legs, yet his rushing prop hasn’t seen much inflation.
His current total of 16.5 rushing yards is a four-week low, but during that span, he’s rushed for 97 yards in three games with four rushing touchdowns. He’s sitting on nine rushing TDs, and adding another would look even better on his resume in a win-and-take-the-division spot for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans have played better football of late and should keep the Jaguars offensively engaged, increasing Lawrence’s scramble opportunities.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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