It was a slight winning weekend again, pushing this article to 12.3 units over two weekends of playoff football ahead of the NFL Conference Championship games.
With only three games remaining on the docket, the hot streak for our NFL picks is coming at the right time, with more plus-money magic coming on Sunday, January 25.
NFL Conference Championship Predictions: Best plus money bets
| Player | Pick | |
|---|---|---|
| 40+ receiving yards | +240 | |
| 65+ 4Q passing yards | +148 | |
| 5+ rushing yards in each quarter | +190 |
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Colby Parkinson 40+ receiving yards
I’m heavily invested in Colby Parkinson this week. He’s clearly the TE1 in an offense that has returned to 3-WR usage, but it's Parkinson getting the routes. Last week, he matched the combined targets of the other three Los Angeles Rams tight ends, while posting a 68% snap share — trailing only Puka Nacua and Davante Adams — in cold conditions against Chicago.
Since Tyler Higbee returned, Parkinson has seen 17 targets with yardage totals of 36, 34, and 56. For the clear depth-chart leader at the position, seven targets and five catches are very much in play again. He could finish second in receiving yards for L.A. this weekend.
Jarrett Stidham 65+ fourth-quarter passing yards
There could be some late, low-resistance yards available for Jarrett Stidham if this offense falls behind early and is forced into catch-up mode. Sixty-five yards can be cleared on a single scoring drive starting from the 35 after a touchback.
Normally, there’s concern about a quarterback getting pulled in a lopsided fourth quarter, but there’s little incentive not to let Stidham finish out a playoff game and rack up soft yards. There’s a clear one-drive out at this number, and I wouldn’t chase it much higher. At plus money, it’s a manageable total, with Covers projecting 225 passing yards versus a listed total of 195 for the Denver Broncos quarterback.
Rhamondre Stevenson 5+ rushing yards in each quarter
The New England Patriots will lean on Rhamondre Stevenson again this week.
He logged 16 carries last game, his most since Week 8, despite missing snaps with an eye injury. The workload ramped up late, as he played 87% of the second-half snaps and handled 80% of the backfield opportunities.
He’s 6-0 to the Over on this rushing prop and now draws a road spot as a favorite against a backup quarterback, which points to a run-heavy script. Stevenson gained five-plus yards in three of the four quarters he played in last week and cashed this plus-money prop in the Wild Card against the Chargers.
If Stidham and the Denver offense sputter early, New England could see extra possessions. His 10+ rushing yards in each quarter prop is priced at +700.
Not intended for use in MA.
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