The Cowboys and Vikings are both still technically alive in the NFC Playoff race, but both teams have very little margin of error. The two teams will face off on Sunday Night Football this week as the Vikings visit the Cowboys.
The best NFL betting sites have the Cowboys as -5.5 spread favorites. SNF props are also available to bet on now.
Below, we will look at NFL player prop projections for all of the top offensive players in this showdown. Unlike last week’s Texans - Chiefs “Under-fest,” this week the computer absolutely loves the “Overs.” We’ll see how much I agree.
Vikings vs Cowboys computer picks for Sunday Night Football
 Vikings |
 Cowboys |
|---|---|
| McCarthy Over 188.5 passing yards (-115) | Prescott Over 260.5 passing yards (-114) |
| Jones Over 47.5 rushing yards (-112) | Williams Over 71.5 rushing yards (-110) |
| Jefferson Over 59.5 receiving yards (-110) | Pickens Over 78.5 receiving yards (-110) |
| Hockenson Over 42.5 receiving yards (-110) | Williams Over 1.5 receptions (-115) |
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Vikings SNF computer picks
JJ McCarthy Over 188.5 passing yards (-115)
Projection: 246.5 yards
It’s been no secret that you can throw on the Cowboys this season. Dallas ranks dead last in the NFL in passing yardage allowed, as they’re giving it up through the air at a 255.2 yards per game clip.
So, a no brainer on the Over here, right?
Well, not exactly.
J.J. McCarthy has horrific passing yardage numbers, as he has gone Under 188.5 passing yards in six-of-seven (6-7!) games played this season.
The computer projects 246 passing yards from McCarthy in this one, which is outrageously high. But all he has to do here is get us to 189.
Last week was a step in the right direction for McCarthy as he completed 16-of-23 passes for 163 yards against a similarly bad Washington defense.
I’ll agree with the computer and say McCarthy gets to 189, albeit barely.
Aaron Jones Over 47.5 rushing yards (-112)
Projection: 49.3 yards
While the Cowboys' pass defense has been ugly to say the least, its run defense has been respectable, particularly lately. Since Dallas’ Week 10 bye, here is how opposing teams’ top running backs have fared:
- Jahmyr Gibbs 43 yards
- Kareem Hunt 58 yards
- Saquon Barkley 22 yards
- Ashton Jeanty 7 yards
This number is far too high for Jones, IMO. I’ll take the Under and go against the computer.
Justin Jefferson Over 59.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 80.7 yards
If you’re a normally elite NFL wide receiver who’s in a slump, the Cowboys defense always comes to the rescue.
Both Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown went for over 90 yards receiving last week against Dallas. On Thanksgiving, Rashee Rice had 92 yards receiving. And the week before that, AJ Brown popped for 110 yards.
Jefferson should be able to reach 60 yards in this spot. I’ll agree with the computer and take the Over.
TJ Hockenson Over 26.5 receiving yards
Projection: 32.5 yards
T.J. Hockenson is hard to trust when it comes to Overs. He went for 59 receiving yards against an elite Seahawks defense two weeks ago, but followed that up with just a 12-yard day against a weak Commanders D.
Too risky for my blood, even against the woeful Dallas pass defense. I’ll take the Under and go against my AI counterpart.
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Cowboys SNF computer picks
Dak Prescott Over 260.5 passing yards (-114)
Projection: 279.3 yards
The Vikings have feasted on quarterbacks over the past month-plus. Here are the numbers for opposing quarterbacks in Minnesota’s last five games:
- Jayden Daniels: 78 yards
- Sam Darnold: 128 yards
- Jordan Love: 139 yards
- Caleb Williams: 193 yards
- Lamar Jackson: 176 yards
Dak Prescott, the stat machine, should be able to crack 200 yards because he hits that number in his sleep. Getting to 261 is a different story, however, against Brian Flores’ defense.
I’ll go against the computer here and take the Dak Under.
Javonte Williams Over 71.5 rushing yards (-110)
Projection: 71.6 yards
The Cowboys need to win the time of possession game to grab a victory in this spot, because they can’t let their hideous pass defense be out there too many times.
To win the TOP battle, look for them to give Javonte Williams the rock a ton. We’ve seen this strategy pay off against the Vikings this season as the Packers let Emanuel Wilson carry the ball a whopping 28 times against Minnesota three weeks ago. Wilson racked up 107 yards on the ground, and the Packers beat Minnesota handily.
Williams should be able to hit this number. I’ll agree with my bot pal here and take the Over.
George Pickens Over 78.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 81.6 yards
Minnesota has done a really nice job of shutting down opposing teams' top receivers lately, highlighted by them taking out Jaxon Smith-Njigba two weeks ago (2 catches for 23 yards).
The problem is, Dallas has two top-shelf receivers in George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. The last time Minnesota faced a team with that type of firepower on offense, they played Detroit. Amon-Ra St. Brown had 97 yards receiving, and Jameson Williams had 66 against them.
It won’t be easy, but I like Pickens to reach this number. I’ll again agree with the computer and take the Over.
Javonte Williams Over 1.5 receptions (-115)
Projection: 57.9 yards
The Cowboys like to get Williams involved in the passing game as the RB is averaging 3.53 targets per game this season.
With the Vikings keying on JSN during their game against Seattle two weeks ago, Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker tied a season-high with three receptions.
Williams should be able to get to two catches as he’ll be heavily involved in the Cowboys’ gameplan this Sunday night.
I’ll again jump on the Over bandwagon with the computer.
