NFL Wild Card Picks and Predictions: Miserable Weather in Buffalo Helps Steelers

The Wild Card Weekend has been dominated by NFL underdogs in recent postseasons. Point spread pups were almost a blind bet for a few years, going 15-3 against the spread in the Wild Card Round from 2017-18 to 2020-21. The 2021-22 ATS record of 1-5 was an outlier, as underdogs went 4-2 ATS last season.

That makes NFL underdogs 20-10 ATS on Wild Card Weekend the previous six seasons. This trend definitely gives me the warm and fuzzies, considering this column’s sole purpose is to make underdog picks and predictions. But I’m not naive enough to think it’s worth anything more than an interesting lead-in.

Turning profits during the NFL postseason is tough, considering you have a select number of games on the NFL odds board drawing all the energy and attention of bookies and bettors. These markets have a season’s worth of data flowing through their veins and the head-to-head matchups are analyzed 100 times over by the time kickoff rolls around — even more so in this “betting-friendly” football environment.

But despite all the advanced stats, hot takes, film study, and whatever else you subscribe to, the key to making NFL picks in the postseason is in the odds. If you can put yourself in a position to get the best of the number for your opinion, you’ve got the inside track. And when it comes to wagering on NFL underdogs in the playoffs, that means getting all the points you can.

Regular season: 24-28-2 ATS

NFL Wild Card picks and predictions

• Steelers +10
• Rams +3.5

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+10) at Buffalo Bills pick

The Buffalo Bills are fighting three things in their Wild Card Round home date on Sunday afternoon: the Pittsburgh Steelers, a massive spread, and the weather.

In the moments following Buffalo’s AFC East clinching victory over Miami last Sunday night, oddsmakers served up about four different flavors of point spread for this opening-round game. The Bills ranged from -7.5 to -10.5 in the first three minutes of action.

That market eventually settled at Buffalo -9.5 and drew early play on the home side, pushing the line to -10. Yet, as the spread rose, the Over/Under total plummeted.

With forecasts calling for wild winds in Orchard Park this weekend, money piled on the Under and drove this number from 42.5 to as low as 35 points. And with that expected decline in points came skepticism the Bills would score enough to cover the double-digit spread.

As of this writing, books are bouncing between Pittsburgh +9.5 and +10 and the extended forecast that prompted that huge adjustment looks like it will hold true to some extent. Sunday afternoon will see sustained winds of 25 mph with gusts over 50 mph blowing NE across Highmark Stadium.

Given those conditions, the betting brain goes directly to Week 13 of the 2021 season. Buffalo hosted the New England Patriots in similar conditions, with that total dipping from 45 points to as low as 39 before closing at 41 O/U.

The Pats edged the Bills 14-10 in a game that featured 71 total carries for a collective 321 rushing yards. That meant plenty of short gains with the clock ticking away, leaving less time for scoring. The same game script could be in store for this weekend.

Those wild winds nullify the Bills’ greatest advantage — the downfield passing game — and turn this battle into trench warfare, which suits a Steelers playbook that’s run at the highest rate over the final three weeks of the season.

When it comes to measuring the rushing game and run-stop units for Pittsburgh and Buffalo, the results look much tighter than 10 points.

I’m also not as high on the Bills as most. Their push for the postseason was impressive, but they didn’t breeze by the Chargers and Patriots in Week 16 and 17 and caught Miami playing with a skeleton crew to close out the season.

As for Pittsburgh, it’s on a three-game winning streak and possibly playing its best two-way football of the year. The Steelers rank No. 2 in EPA allowed per play and No. 4 in EPA per play in the final three weeks.

PICK: Steelers +10 (-110 at bet365)

Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) at Detroit Lions pick

One of my first bets of Wild Card Weekend was Los Angeles Rams +4 when odds hit the board Sunday night.

The spread for this NFC Wild Card contest has since slimmed to as low as Lions -3, but there are some Rams +3.5 spreads still available as of this writing. And since this column comes out on Wednesday, the half-point hook will have to do.

The biggest reason I quickly snatched up the points with Los Angeles was the Detroit defense... or lack thereof.

The Detroit Lions stop unit has slowly slipped to the bottom of most measurements over the past 10 weeks, ranked 27th in EPA allowed per play since Week 9. Detroit is 26th in yards allowed per play and has folded for the 11th most first downs allowed.

The Lions hemorrhaged points to just about everyone down the stretch — regardless of offensive quality or not — and the Rams rank on the quality end of the offensive scale. Los Angeles finished seventh in offensive DVOA at FTN and has been an efficient group all season, boasting steady success in spots like third down conversions, yards per play, and red zone scoring success.

Those numbers have been injected with jet fuel in recent weeks. Los Angeles won seven of its final eight games, averaging more than 28 points in that stretch, including a Week 18 victory with the bulk of the offensive stars sitting out. The Rams, who enter the Wild Card with fresh legs, are No. 4 in EPA per play and No. 5 in success rate per play since Week 11.

Another knock against Detroit is the injuries sustained to TE Sam LaPorta and WR/special team star Kalif Raymond in Week 18. Both players are up in the air for Sunday and sound like game-time decisions, given updates from head coach Dan Campbell.

LaPorta’s absence would be a big one for the Lions to overcome. The rookie has quickly become Jared Goff’s safety blanket and is one of the best tight ends in the NFL versus zone coverage — something L.A. utilizes a lot. Fifty-six of LaPorta’s 86 total receptions have come vs. zone, panning out to 614 of his 889 receiving yards (69%).

Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay knows Goff very well, as is the main media narrative heading into the weekend. Beyond that familiarity, however, McVay is the more experienced coach in terms of navigating the playoff waters and is another reason why I’m taking the points with Los Angeles.

PICK: Rams +3.5 -125 (-125 at 888Sport)

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