The 2025 NFL season is being heralded for its parity.
It seems like we have a new Super Bowl favorite each week, and while there are clear divides between strong and weak teams, no squad looks invincible.
Through seven weeks, the average margin of victory is 10.8 points. That’s a half-point drop from the past two seasons and the fourth-lowest MoV since 1922.
Sure, competitiveness is up across the league, but tell that to NFL bettors who tend to take the points.
All that “parity” hasn’t provided any extra point-spread pop for underdogs, who are covering short of 48% so far in 2025 (depending on your closing lines). In fact, dogs were a dismal 5-10 ATS in Week 7.
Those returns pale in comparison to past seasons with similar symmetry.
The 2022 season had the lowest all-time MoV at 9.8, and underdogs covered at a 54.5% clip. The 2016 slate saw an average margin of 10.5, and dogs went a ho-hum 49% ATS. And 1994 finished with a MoV of 10.6, which left pups to produce a 53.4% windfall.
So, what gives this year?
There does seem to be a sweet spot for underdog spreads in this “closely contested” campaign.
Underdogs of +6 or shorter — the most competitive dogs — are coming through just 44% of the time. The biggest dogs — the least competitive pups — getting double figures are just 3-4 ATS.
But those teams getting between +6.5 and +9.5 — right in the middle of all that parity — are a collective 13-7 against the spread and covering at a 65% rate.
And whaddayaknow? A couple of my Week 8 NFL picks and predictions fall within that ATS sweet spot. Here are my latest “NFL Underdogs” best bets:
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 11-10 ATS (-0.21 units)
NFL Week 8 predictions and picks
Bears +7
Commanders +10.5
Texans +1.5Chicago Bears (+7) at Baltimore Ravens
Best bet: Bears +7
(-118 at Pinnacle)
I highlighted this game in my “Bet Now, Bet Later" column. In that piece, I noted that if you liked the Baltimore Ravens coming off the bye week, you’ll want to get them below the touchdown, as this spread could go up before Sunday.
But it’s been two days, and most books are holding tight to that opening number, despite positive injury updates for the Ravens. The more I look at this matchup, I’m not sure a bye week will fix everything for Baltimore.
Lamar Jackson is expected back under center, but this defense remains one of the worst in the league, ranking near the bottom of most major measurements.
The Chicago Bears are right there with them in some metrics, but at least their stop unit is dangerous, recording a league-best 16 takeaways. Chicago runs man-to-man coverage almost exclusively, which is something Jackson has had trouble with this season.
The Bears are riding a four-game winning streak, and while those victories have come against some softer foes — Dallas, Las Vegas, Washington, New Orleans — those rival defenses aren’t any worse than the Ravens.
Chicago’s ground game, ranked No. 7 in EPA per handoff since Week 3 and boasting one of the best run block win rates, is fueling those winning ways. It’s marched for 367 yards the past two games and takes on the horrible Ravens’ run stop.
Baltimore should be the favorite, but not by this much. With a touchdown available, I’m grabbing all the points I can get with Chicago.
Washington Commanders (+10.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Best bet: Commanders +10.5
(+110 at FanDuel)
If you haven’t heard, the Kansas City Chiefs are back like Travis Kelce’s girl. And the hype is almost on par… at least for football fans.
After blasting the Lions in prime time two weeks ago and shutting out the Raiders in Week 7, Kansas City returns atop Super Bowl futures and is laying the lumber in this non-conference home date in Week 8.
The Washington Commanders were a 6.5-point dog on the look-ahead line before losing to Dallas last weekend and watching QB Jayden Daniels leave the game with a hamstring injury. His status is up in the air, and has driven this spread past the key number to +10.5.
With this game on Monday, Washington not only gets an extra day for Daniels to heal up (and for solid backup Marcus Mariota to run with the starters) but also helps his favorite targets, Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin, get back on the field after sitting out Sunday.
Kansas City could get caught in a look-ahead spot on MNF, leaving a short turnaround for a huge game at Buffalo in Week 9. Given the sizable spread, the game script could see KC pulling starters (like it did against Vegas) and toning down the playbook in the second half to save something for that battle with the Bills.
The Chiefs aren’t great as big favorites during the Patrick Mahomes Era, owning a 10-15-3 ATS record (41%) when laying -10 or more since 2018.
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (+1.5)
Best bet: Houston +1.5
(-115 at DraftKings)
The Houston Texans defense got off the plane in Seattle, but apparently, the offense is still on a bye week.
The Texans' scoring attack couldn’t do much against the Seahawks on Monday night, despite the defense generating four takeaways, a touchdown, and giving the offense extra touches and solid starting field position.
Houston was a slim home favorite on the look-ahead line for this Week 8 non-conference clash with the San Francisco 49ers, but officially opened as a 1.5-point pup inside NRG Stadium. That spread is starting to jump the fence with early interest in the Texans.
Houston's elite stop unit rests inside the Top 5 of many a magical advanced metric, including EPA allowed per play, defensive DVOA, and defensive rating at PFF. San Francisco's attack is getting healthier, but it's still waiting on word from QB Brock Purdy.
Purdy was hoping to be back for Week 8, but reports are that he’s still dealing with turf toe discomfort, leaving backup Mac Jones as the potential starter for the fourth straight game. Jones doesn’t threaten much beyond the sticks, and this Niners team hasn’t cracked 23 points in regulation since Week 2.
As for the Texans’ offense, there’s a lot to be desired — especially with WR Nico Collins dealing with a concussion on a short week. However, quarterback C.J. Stroud is very much a homebody, and his passing output sees a significant uptick on the fast indoor track in H-Town.
It’s crazy, but this will be just the third home game for the Texans so far this season.
My NFL Underdogs column is 11-10 this season for -0.21 units.
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