I don’t want to be that guy, but there are like two weeks until Christmas.
If you think watching your weekly NFL picks play out is pressure-packed, you’ve never tracked a package containing that “one thing” your kid asked for as the days tick closer to December 25.
I’ve tried to stay ahead of the Xmas shopping sweats as much as I could this year, taking a good chunk out of the wish lists well ahead of time.
And in the process, I got thinking about my parents putting in the work to make sure they hit all the legs on my Xmas present parlay when I was younger. And that was in a time before Amazon. Respect.
As you wrap those gifts, you hope they bring your loved ones the same joy you had all those Decembers ago.
So, in honor of those magical Christmas mornings, my NFL Underdogs Week 15 picks are inspired by the greatest Xmas gifts I’ve ever received.
Last week 1-2 ATS
Season: 24-16-2 ATS (+5.47 units)
NFL Week 15 predictions and picks
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New England Patriots +1.5
Denver Broncos +2.5
Detroit Lions +6
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (+1.5)
Best bet: New England Patriots +1.5
(-115 at FanDuel)
The star of my Christmas dreams in 1984 was Panosh Place’s “Voltron” toys.
Like most ’80s toys, this line was fueled by a Saturday morning cartoon in which five robot lions — piloted by five plucky youngsters — joined forces to form a big-ass fighting robot. That was Voltron. The catch was that you had to buy all five lion toys separately if you wanted to make Voltron.
And wouldn’t you know it, Santa delivered like Tom Brady in the clutch with all five of those bad boys under my tree on Xmas morning.
Speaking of performing like TB12, the 2025 New England Patriots are on a Brady-esque tear heading into a huge AFC East encounter with the Buffalo Bills. Yet, oddsmakers are giving the Pats the points at home in Week 15.
I get it. The Bills have Josh Allen, who, even in an MVP-calibre campaign from Drake Maye, is an edge at quarterback. But much like “Voltron”, New England is a tough team to beat when it pulls all its parts together.
The Patriots are a Top 10 team in both EPA per play on offense and EPA allowed per play on defense. That’s led to the highest margin of victory among AFC members at +8.5.
New England can hit body blows against a bad Bills run stop, go over the top for explosive passes, and lock down Buffalo’s rushing attack with a defense that could have top run-stuffer Khyiris Tonga back.
The biggest knock against New England is its strength of schedule. The Patriots have had a cushy path to 11-2 SU, but that record does contain a win over Buffalo at Orchard Park in Week 5. And now, the Patriots are home in the biggest game for the franchise since Brady left and have had two weeks to heal, prep, and scheme thanks to a Week 14 bye.
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos (+2.5)
Best bet: Denver Broncos +2.5
(-110 at FanDuel)
One of the best Christmas presents I ever got wasn’t even on my list.
It was Jesus’ birthday in 1992, and I was pleasantly surprised when I opened a Nintendo Game Boy. Apparently, my mom had won it as a prize earlier in the year. I played that thing until my thumbs stung.
The allure of the Game Boy was its simplicity. It wasn’t flashy, with its boxy grey body and sickly greenish 8-bit display. But the game library was deep and rich, and the battery life could get you from Xmas morning to New Year’s Day.
The 2025 Denver Broncos might as well come packaged with “Tetris” because they share similar traits to Nintendo’s heralded handheld system.
Denver is far from flashy — with a conservative offense ranked 29th in yards per pass — and might not always look great, as evidenced by a 5-8 ATS record and 11 of those contests decided by one possession. But the Broncos get the job done.
That 11-2 SU mark is built on owning the trenches with the offensive and defensive lines among the best in the business. Denver is one of only three teams that rank Top 10 in every OL/DL win rate metric at ESPN (pass rush, pass block, run stop, run block).
Holding the Green Bay Packers’ pass rush at bay and slamming the door on Green Bay’s run-heavy sets are the keys to keeping the Broncos’ 10-game winning streak alive — or at least covering as 2.5-point home underdogs in Week 15.
The Cheeseheads haven’t faced a defense this stout since getting stunned by the Cleveland Browns back in Week 3. If you run down the Packers’ resume, you’ll find just three defenses inside the Top 10 in EPA allowed, and eight opponents ranked 19th or worse in that advanced stat.
Detroit Lions (+6) at Los Angeles Rams
Best bet: Detroit Lions +6
(-110 at BetMGM)
Not all my best Christmas gifts were toys or video games. The Christmas of 2005 delivered a practical present from my folks that was worth its weight during those harsh Canadian winters.
I was wrapping up my first year at Covers.com and had just purchased a car that spring, which meant bearing the cost of all things automotive. Being both protective and pragmatic, my parents purchased a set of winter tires for me — a gift that kept on giving for many Decembers thereafter.
Standing your ground on the road in the harshest of conditions is something Detroit Lions bettors know all about. Since Dan Campbell took over as head coach in 2021, the Lions have been the best road wager in the NFL at 28-13 ATS (68%).
I’m packing on the points with Detroit in Week 15, grabbing the most traction I can get at +6 while some sharper sportsbooks are as short as Lions +4.5. There’s no home-field advantage for L.A., and there will be plenty of Honolulu Blue littering the stands at SoFi Stadium.
The Lions take on former face of the franchise Matthew Stafford, but it’s the Los Angeles Rams' ground game doing the dirty work in recent weeks. The Rams’ rushing playbook is averaging 6.2 yards per carry over the last three games, providing pop for Sean McVay’s play-action schemes.
Detroit’s pass defense has been up and down due to a plague of injuries in the secondary, but the run defense has remained tough. The Lions sit among the top run defenses in many analytics, including No. 8 in Run Defense DVOA at FTN and opponent success rate per handoff.
Offensively, Detroit will test this Los Angeles defense — especially the L.A. secondary. The Rams gave up big plays through the air to Arizona last week, and that’s been the glaring weakness of this squad (that and special teams) since Week 10.
Detroit’s WR duo of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams presents a “pick your poison” scenario for the L.A. secondary, even more so if starting corner Darious Williams continues to miss games.
The Lions may not leave La-La Land with a victory, but considering they’ve had extra time since beating Dallas last Thursday, this is the healthiest and most prepared version of Detroit we’ve seen in some time.
My NFL Underdogs column is 24-16-2 ATS this season for +5.47 units.
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