NFL Week 15 Picks and Predictions: Howling Pups

NFL underdogs barked loudest last week, finishing 10-4-1 ATS against the NFL odds.

Unfortunately, my NFL picks and predictions stumbled upon two of the four pups that came up short against the point spread.

It was a cruel Sunday, like watching your brothers and sisters open awesome Xmas gifts, and when it came to your turn to rip through the wrapping paper, a goddamn desk lamp was waiting for you.

If Week 14 was Christmas morning for underdog bettors, then I dub Week 15 odds as Boxing Day.

For those not familiar, December 26 – also known as Boxing Day in Canada and the UK – has become one of the best shopping days of the year.

With stores clearing out their remaining holiday stock, you can find some killer deals. And for those who got snubbed by Santa, it’s a chance to go get what you really wanted for Christmas.

What I really want are some NFL winners. And maybe some new sneakers. Let’s go shopping.

Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 21-19-2 ATS

NFL Week 15 picks and predictions

• Commanders +7
• Cowboys +2.5
• Giants +6

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Washington Commanders (+7) at Los Angeles Rams pick

If you took the logos off the helmets and just looked at the advanced metrics, there would be one team ranking among the NFL elite since Week 11 that would seem to have no business being there. That team is the 6-7 Los Angeles Rams.

Los Angeles would have extended its winning streak to four games, if not for an overtime loss in Baltimore last Sunday. The Rams now return home to SoFi Stadium at peak power rating and are laying a touchdown to the Washington Commanders in Week 15.

Washington got a much-needed bye last weekend after dropping four straight games from Week 10 to Week 13. The Commanders have allowed 150 total points in those losses and now face one of the hottest-scoring attacks in the league.

So, we’re betting on Washington. Wait… what?

Not only do I think the market has hit the tipping point at a touchdown spread, but L.A. is in a tough situational spot. Not only is there the letdown of the near upset win over the Ravens but the Rams are looking past Washington to a short week turnaround to play the Saints on Thursday Night Football in Week 16.

The Commanders can clap back too. Washington’s offense is of the “swing big in case you hit it” philosophy with QB Sam Howell not afraid to let her rip. It sits 11th in total passing yards, 12th in completions of 25-plus, and faces a Los Angeles defense that gave up home runs to Baltimore and allows the sixth most “explosive passes” in the land.

One big play over the top for a touchdown from the Coms could put this sizable spread beyond the Rams' reach.

PICK: Washington Commanders +7 (-124 at Pinnacle)

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills pick

When you’re locked into betting only underdogs for the column’s sake, sometimes you just have to side with the best team getting the points. And it’s tough to find a team playing better football than the Dallas Cowboys.

Granted, the Cowboys’ current five-game winning streak featured four home games, and the lone road trip was to Carolina to play the worst team in the world. Dallas is a different animal inside Jerry’s World, at least on offense. That’s a big reason why this spread is what it is.

Defense tends to travel, and Dan Quinn’s brand of chaos could give Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen fits. The Cowboys sit No. 1 in pass rush win rate at ESPN and that pressure has put rival passers into bad spots, leading to 13 interceptions.

Allen has been caught several times trying to fit a square pass into a round hole, leading to 14 interceptions. He didn’t have a great game against Kansas City, which blitzes and plays a lot of man – just like Dallas.

Offensively, the Cowboys can pick apart at the softer Buffalo run stop, which allows the third-highest yards per carry and sits 22nd in run stop win rate. Dallas has picked up steam behind RB Tony Pollard and a healthy offensive line, plowing the road for the sixth highest EPA per run in the league since Week 10.

This contest has a tall total, but I’m not sold on a shootout. This feels like a grinder of a game with a playoff-like atmosphere and intensity. I’ll side with the better run game and better defense.

PICK: Dallas Cowboys +2.5  (-123 at Pinnacle)

New York Giants (+6) at New Orleans Saints pick

The New Orleans Saints snapped a three-game losing funk with a home win over Carolina but lost in the sauce is that New Orleans was outgained by almost 100 yards by the worst offense in the NFL.

The Panthers dominated possession with a relentless run game, but turnovers and points allowed off those mistakes as well as red-zone goose eggs giftwrapped a 28-6 win for NOLA.

Week 15 sends the New York Giants to the Big Easy on the short week after stunning the Green Bay Packers at home on Monday Night Football. All things considered, there isn’t a six-point gap between these NFC mid-carders – especially with the way the G-Men have been playing on defense.

The Giants sit No. 10 in EPA allowed per play since Week 6, checking foes to 22 points or less in six of those eight games (5-2-1 ATS). And New York likely wouldn’t have given up 22 points to Green Bay on Monday, if not for Saquon Barkley’s ill-timed fumble late in the fourth quarter.

New Orleans had 207 total yards of offense against the Panthers and QB Derek Carr (or what’s left of him) had only 37 passing yards heading into the final frame. Carr hasn’t fared well under pressure or versus the blitz this season (sitting low in PFF ratings). He faces Wink Martindale’s aggressive attack that is stirring up its share of chaos and creating takeaways. Carr is playing behind an offensive line ranked 29th in pass block win rate.

Offensively, New York just has to keep it simple: Saquon and lots of him. He broke the Packers’ back in the second half, finishing with 86 yards rushing and two touchdowns.

New Orleans allowed more than 200 yards rushing to Carolina, got rolled by Detroit’s RBs in Week 13, and watched Atlanta go for 228 rushing yards in Week 12. The Saints have allowed 5.2 yards per carry over that three-game span.

I didn't plan it this way, but G-Men +6 to complete the NFC East trifecta in Week 15.

PICK: New York Giants +6 -(110 at bet365)

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