The Buffalo Bills put their undefeated record on the line on Sunday Night Football tonight vs. a familiar foe in the New England Patriots, who are two games behind them in the AFC East.
Our SNF best bets and Patriots vs. Bills predictions for October 5 go beyond the spread and total to give out some plus-money props, including a Stefon Diggs TD play.
Patriots vs Bills SNF predictions
- Bills -8.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
- Under 49.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
- Diggs anytime TD (+250 at FanDuel)
- Kincaid o3.5 recs (+112 at FanDuel)
Patriots vs Bills SNF best bets
Bills -8.5
Jason Logan is leaning toward a Buffalo Bills cover vs. the New England Patriots tonight, as the Pats still seem a cut or two below the best in the business.
"This spread has dropped considerably since opening as high as Buffalo -10.5 on Sunday night. Divisional games should be shown a little respect, as that’s driving this line down. The Bills are a steep jump in competition for New England, and I’d lean toward the home side to cover."
Under 49.5
Logan believes the total is too tall tonight and likes the Under.
"I bet the Under on this total earlier in the week when books went as high as 50.5 points. Buffalo is expected to get some key defenders back in Ed Oliver and Matt Milano, and New England is also a sound stop unit with a respectable pass rush. I like a lower-scoring finish on Sunday night."
Patriots vs Bills SNF TD picks
Stefon Diggs anytime TD
Ryan Gilbert is backing Pats WR Stefon Diggs to break the plane vs. his former team tonight.
"Diggs will face the Buffalo Bills for the first time as a visiting player, and he previously recorded six catches for 82 yards against them at home with Houston last season. Diggs has yet to score this season, but he was targeted seven times and caught six of them for 101 yards last week against the Panthers. He had two of four of New England’s targets in the red zone last week, and you have to think he’ll be motivated against his former team."
Patriots vs Bills SNF props
Dalton Kincaid Over 3.5 receptions
Jason Ence believes Dalton Kincaid will continue to be a target that Josh Allen relies on tonight.
"Kincaid has played against the New England Patriots three times in the past two seasons, and he’s hauled in 4+ catches in each. He’s snagged 16 catches from 22 targets, proving to be a reliable safety valve for Josh Allen. The Patriots are allowing the eighth-most receptions by tight ends at 5.75 per game, and only six teams are allowing more targets per game to the position."
Patriots vs Bills odds
Patriots vs Bills game info
| Location: | Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, October 5, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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