Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs grinded out a 17-9 win over the Jaguars last week and will now shift their attention toward the dysfunctional Chicago Bears. Despite the return of Travis Kelce, Mahomes' performance in that win was just average by his standards and many are still waiting for a textbook Mahomes performance from the two-time MVP and Super Bowl MVP.
Can Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs take advantage of a plus-matchup or will the offense continue to spit out low-scoring results? The NFL odds expect the former.
Continue reading for free NFL player prop picks and predictions for the Bears vs. Chiefs matchup on Sunday, September 24th.
Patrick Mahomes Week 3 prop picks
- Over 18.5 rushing yards
- Over 18.5 rushing yards + Under 0.5 interceptions + Kelce Over 71.5 receiving yards
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Patrick Mahomes Week 3 prop pick
Over 18.5 rushing yards (-120)
Patrick Mahomes has yet to look very Mahomes-esque this season. In Week 1 he went 21-for-39 for 226 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. In Week 2 he had a stronger performance (the return of Travis Kelce certainly helped), this time going 29-for-41 for 305 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Despite the improvement, last week's performance was still nothing to write home about given the Chiefs mustered up just 17 points.
But one element of Mahomes' games thus far that has possibly gone unnoticed or at least understated is his production on the ground. He tallied 30 yards on the ground in Week 1 and another 45 in Week 2, which would have been his sixth- and second-highest regular season totals last year.
The increased production on the ground is likely a product of two things: 1) the continued spamming of two-high looks by opposing defenses that limit his deep looks and stretch the defense vertically, giving him more space on scrambles, and 2) the lack of reliable receiving talent (a hobbled Kelce returning last week hardly counts) forcing him to improvise with his feet.
Yet despite this, his rushing yard prop for Sunday is set at just 18.5 yards. That is just one (yes, one) yard higher than the prop he had heading into Week 1. In essence, there has essentially been no adjustment to his rushing yard market.
Prop: Over 18.5 rushing yards (-120 at DraftKings)
Patrick Mahomes Week 3 same-game parlay
The Chiefs go into Sunday as a 12-13 point favorite and that bodes well for Mahomes' ability to not turn the ball over through the air. Since taking over the reins at quarterback, Mahomes has 49 TDs to nine interceptions across 21 games in which the Chiefs were favored by double-digits.
That is good for a 5.44 TD:INT ratio in those games compared to his 3.50 TD:INT ratio in all other games he has played in. Despite the massive disparity, he is just -150 to go under 0.5 interceptions on Sunday.
In terms of who on his own team will be catching his passes, as cliche as it is Travis Kelce is the right person to look at. Despite returning from a knee injury, Kelce still commanded nine targets. Granted he walked away with just four receptions for 26 yards, but to his credit, he did find paydirt in Week 2.
Week 3 is the perfect time for him to return to form after a down performance and with another week to heal his knee. His receiving yardage total sits at just 71.5, which may seem high at first given his output last week, but remember: player receiving props is more about opportunity than it is about final production and he did have nine targets last week.
Plus the Chicago Bears have not exactly contained tight ends well thus far. They allowed rookie Luke Musgrave to reel in three receptions for 50 yards and then Cade Otton put up six receptions for 41 yards. Kelce is obviously an entirely different caliber of player from those two and should be able to eclipse his number with ease.
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