The Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys already had a very prickly rivalry running in the NFC.
Now, in the wake of the Micah Parsons trade, this Sunday Night Football matchup has been circled since Dallas dealt the superstar pass rusher ahead of the 2025 season.
Here are my early Packers vs. Cowboys predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, September 28.
Packers vs Cowboys predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early SNF spread pick: Green Bay -6.5 (-105)
My first bet of Week 4 was snatching the Green Bay Packers below the key number of -6, getting Green Bay -5.5 on Sunday night. That spread has since swelled as high as -6.5 with early action on the visitor.
Even at this inflated number, I’m siding with the Packers.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has a lot to do with that opinion. The Cowboys rank near the bottom of most advanced defensive metrics and are particularly weak against the pass. The secondary is missing pieces, and the guys that are able to get on the field aren’t 100%.
As for the Cowboys offense, it could be missing its top weapon with WR CeeDee Lamb leaving the Week 3 loss with a high ankle sprain. Dallas’ attack sputtered without Lamb on the field and crumbled in the second half against a bad Bears defense.
Green Bay offers a much stiffer opponent on that side of the ball. The Packers enter Week 4 rated No. 3 in EPA allowed per play, No. 2 in success rate allowed, and boast one of the top pass rushes despite blitzing at one of the lower rates in the NFL.
Add in the Cheeseheads playing for Parsons and to get the taste of last Sunday’s upset in out of their mouths, and I’ll lay Green Bay below a touchdown.
Early SNF total pick: Under 47.5 (-110)
This total was at 48.5 points and has slipped to 47.5 with early opinion on the Under.
The injury to Lamb is a big one, and the Cowboys are much easier to handle without the WR1 to worry about. So far, Dallas has found success running the football — when it can — and may have to take to the ground more to alleviate the pressure on Dak Prescott.
Jordan Love and the Packers’ passing game had trouble connecting in Cleveland this past weekend, with the Browns' pass rush constantly hounding the QB. Green Bay could be missing starting OLs Aaron Banks and Zach Tom, compounding an already thin depth chart on the line.
We saw the Packers play much more conservatively against Cleveland after those injuries, and while the Cowboys don’t bring the heat like the Browns, Dallas is still a Top 5 defense in pressure rate, QB hits, and QB hurries. Green Bay could take a similar safe approach in Week 4, limiting downfield looks after boasting the longest depth of target in the league.
Green Bay also gifted the Browns 14 penalties for 74 yards against — tied for most flags in Week 3. Cleaning up those miscues will go a long way in allowing Green Bay to control possession and tempo.
Packers vs Cowboys odds
- Packers vs. Cowboys spread: Cowboys -5.5
- Packers vs. Cowboys moneyline: Packers -250, Cowboys +213
- Packers vs. Cowboys Over/Under: 49.5
How to watch Packers vs Cowboys
- Packers vs. Cowboys matchup
- Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025, 8:20 p.m. ET
- City: Dallas
- Venue: AT&T Stadium
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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