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When it comes to Week 13 odds, I’m continuing to pile on a Cleveland running back who will be the focal point of this week’s offense, banking on a speedy wideout to see more reps this week indoors, and getting on a quarterback rushing total for +320.
Let's get after it in my latest NFL picks.
Week 13 milestone picks
- Jerome Ford 75+ rushing yards (+320 at bet365)
- Jameson Williams 50+ receiving yards (+390 at bet365)
- Jake Browning 25+ rushing yards (+320 at bet365)
Picks made on December 2 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best Week 13 milestone bets
75-plus rushing yards
I've emphasized Jerome Ford's importance in several articles this week, as the Cleveland Browns' best path to victory lies through their starting running back. Ford has stood out since taking over for the injured Nick Chubb, leading the league in yards per carry since Week 6 (minimum 95 carries) at an impressive 4.7 clip.
The Browns boast a perfect 5-0 record over their last eight games when Ford reaches double-digit carries. Notably, Kareem Hunt has struggled, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry over the past seven games.
Ford's versatility shines through in his ability to deliver commendable numbers with low volume, with last week's 65 yards on nine carries being the latest example. Additionally, he can shoulder a heavier load, as evident in Ford's 17-carry performance three games ago against Baltimore, where he amassed an impressive 107 yards.
With Joe Flacco under center, Amari Cooper questionable, and Marquise Goodwin out, this will be Ford’s offense vs. the Los Angeles Rams. Ford has already had one indoor game this year, racking up 74 yards and a score on 11 scores against Indy.
Ford's rushing total is at 50.5 but 75+ yards is paying a very sexy +320, which I’m ultimately riding for a full unit.
Jerome Ford prop: 75-plus rushing yards (+320 at bet365)
50-plus receiving yards
Detroit Lions OC Ben Jonhson has been talking up receiver Jameson Williams and telling the media that his reps will be going up thanks to his performance at practice and on the field. That certainly sounds like a vote of confidence for a receiver who leads his team in aDOT at 16.74 yards and has had three of his 12 receptions go for 30-plus yards.
Williams is coming off a season-high in snaps (49) and routes (30). He cut into Josh Reynolds' route share on Thanksgiving and could finish this week second in that category.
The former Alabama star now faces off against a New Orleans Saints defense that is missing starting safety Marcus Maye. Meanwhile, Jared Goff has also been much better indoors, with a QB rating that's 15 points higher when playing in an indoor setting.
Ultimately, Williams should be able to hit the 50-yard mark with volume or from one deep bomb from Goff. There is also the benefit of Detroit DC Aaron Glenn knowing this Saints’ defense very well, as he was New Orleans’ secondary coach from 2016 to 2020.
It’s a one-unit play at a big price but a modest total for someone who can hit this with one or two catches.
Jameson Williams prop: 50-plus receiving yards (+390 at bet365)
25-plus rushing yards
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Jake Browning is just one game removed from a 40-yard rushing performance in relief. After failing to mimic those numbers last week with a nine-yard outing, the market might have softened up on the QB’s rushing ability.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are allowing nearly 20 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs and C.J. Stroud is coming off his best rushing game of the season, totaling 47 yards on the ground to lead the Texans in rushing last week.
The Bengals are also an 8-point road dogs on Sunday, so Browning will likely be dropping back more than 26 times he did last week. Additionally, of Browning's eight runs this season, two have been designed plays.
The dude has legit wheels, and Browning's combined 40-time was 4.74 — better than both Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. THE BLITZ is projecting Over 25 yards from the Bengals QB in Week 13, so getting this milestone at +320 is well worth the gamble.
Jake Browning prop: 25-plus rushing yards (+320 at bet365)
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