Week 17 draws to a close in Georgia when the Los Angeles Rams visit the Atlanta Falcons.
Let's take a look at the latest NFL player prop projections and Matthew Stafford odds for Monday Night Football to see where the value lies on the Rams star this December 29.
Matthew Stafford projections for Monday Night Football
| Market | Proj. | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards (273.5) |
312.06 | Over 273.5 -110 |
A+ |
| Pass Completions (22.5) |
25.1 | Over 22.5 -115 |
A+ |
| Pass Attempts (34.5) |
37.73 | Over 34.5 -115 |
A |
| Passing TDs (2.5) |
2.18 | Under 2.5 -180 |
C |
| Score a TD (0.5) |
0.03 | Over 0.5 +1600 |
C |
Our computer projections are screaming “volume night” for Stafford. The model projects 312.1 passing yards versus a 273.5 line (A+ value), plus 25.1 completions vs 22.5 (A+) and 37.7 attempts vs 34.5 (A). Those three Overs are positively correlated: if the Rams lean pass-heavy (or play from behind), all can hit together.
The interesting part is touchdowns: despite the yardage optimism, the projection is only 2.18 pass TDs versus a 2.5 line, and the market prices the under at -180 with just C value, meaning you’re paying a premium for something the model only mildly favors.
“Stafford to score a TD” is basically a longshot (0.03 projection), so even +1600 grades poorly.
Matthew Stafford same-game parlay for MNF
Over 273.5 passing yards
Over 34.5 pass attempts
Over 22.5 pass completions
This highly-correlated SGP featuring our top Matthew Stafford prop projections returns $31 for every $10 you risk.
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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