The final Monday Night Football matchup of the season sends the Los Angeles Rams to the other side of the country to face the Atlanta Falcons.
There are mixed motivations for both sides, which could lead to profitable prop betting edges among the Rams vs. Falcons props.
Here are my best NFL picks for Monday, December 29.
Rams vs Falcons MNF props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Matthew Stafford |
Over 22.5 completions | -115 |
 Drake London |
Over 5.5 receptions | -110 |
| Davis Allen |
long reception Over 11.5 yards | -115 |
Matthew Stafford Over 22.5 completions
This primetime stage is the perfect spot for Matthew Stafford to secure his Most Valuable Player hardware.
Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay was asked by reporters if Stafford’s MVP campaign would influence his playcalling versus the Atlanta Falcons. McVay said he would never make a decision that is not best for the team, but also admitted that leaning into Stafford’s MVP form is often the right decision.
That’s not a “No”.
The Falcons’ secondary plays a high rate of zone and protects against the deep pass while the defensive front blitzes at the second-highest rate in the NFL. That’s fine with Stafford, who owns the No. 2 passer rating versus zone schemes and is the No. 3 QB against the blitz, according to PFF.
Given Atlanta’s deep safeties and aggressive pass rush (and injuries to the L.A. o-line), downfield looks may not develop, leaving Stafford to slice and dice this Falcons’ zone with quicker, more high-percentage passes underneath.
He’s completed 22 or more throws in four of his last five outings and six of his last eight games. Week 17 projections range from 22 to 29 completions, with most models coming in at 23 or higher.
Drake London Over 5.5 receptions
Drake London is on the Falcons’ injury report in Week 17 as he works his way back from a knee injury, but head coach Raheem Morris seems confident his top receiver will be in action on Monday.
London played at Arizona last week in his first outing in more than a month. While he had a quiet day, recording three catches on eight targets for 27 yards, he did run 30 routes on a 70% snap share. Another week and an extra day of rest will help London shake off the rust before facing the Rams.
Los Angeles’ biggest weakness has been its secondary in the second half of the season. This zone-heavy has been picked apart by elite WRs since November, and London ranks as the No. 3 receiver versus zone coverage at PFF. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is also notably better against zone, including boasting the 11th highest percentage of “catchable balls” thrown against those schemes.
London has played just 10 games due to injuries this season, yet has drawn eight or more targets in all but two of those outings. He’s recorded six or more receptions in six of those games, and his Week 17 forecasts all call for at least six grabs with a ceiling of seven catches on MNF.
With the Falcons tabbed as sizable home underdogs, the game script paints a pass-positive picture for Atlanta’s offense.
Davis Allen longest reception Over 11.5 yards
The Rams have a wealth of riches at tight end, especially with TE3 Davis Allen emerging as a pass-catching option in the home stretch.
Allen averages almost 10 yards per catch against zone schemes (compared to 5.0 vs. man) and faces the Falcons’ secondary running the 10th highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL. He’s been most effective against zone, with McVay rolling out 12 and even 13 personnel, drawing 18 of his 32 total targets and 15 of his 24 receptions against zone defenses.
Allen has drawn four or more targets in three of his last five games while snatching two or more of those balls in four of those showings. He’s posted reception longs of 12, 15, and 27 yards in three of those contests, each going Over his longest reception prop.
Factoring in player projections for MNF, Allen is expected to catch two passes for an average of about 10 yards per reception. With the L.A. offense missing Davante Adams and Atlanta not allowing anything over the top, the tight ends will play a bigger role in the passing game.
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Rams vs Falcons MNF prop betting card
- Stafford o22.5 completions (-115)
- London o5.5 receptions (-110)
- Allen long reception o11.5 yards (-115)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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