Lions vs Chargers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 10: Goff & Co. Torch Los Angeles' Murky Defense

Despite Los Angeles coming off two straight wins and playing on home turf on Sunday, Rohit Ponnaiya is all over Detroit as it still holds the upper hand on both sides of the ball. Read more in our Lions vs. Chargers betting picks.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Nov 12, 2023 • 10:50 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The 6-2 Detroit Lions look to keep rolling as they head to the West Coast to face the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10 odds. The Lions have won five of their last six games but the Bolts have won four of their previous six contests and will be at home.

NFL odds hit the board on Monday with Detroit at -1.5 and money has come in on the road faves with that spread moving to -2.5 for this clash. Here are my best free NFL picks for Lions vs. Chargers on November 12.

Lions vs Chargers odds

Lions vs Chargers predictions

The Detroit Lions have been on fire by going 5-1 straight up and against the spread in their last six games. Fresh off a bye, they're also getting healthier on offense with Pro Bowl guard Jonah Jackson, center Frank Ragnow, and running back David Montgomery on track to return on Sunday.

One silver lining to the rib injury that has sidelined Montgomery since Week 6 is that first-round RB Jahmyr Gibbs has developed in his absence and exploded for 152 yards in his last game. Having a thunder-and-lightning duo like Montgomery and Gibbs will also open things up for Detroit's efficient passing game.

Jared Goff ranks fourth in the league in passing grade per Pro Football Focus, and while he tends to struggle outdoors and when facing pressure, he has an advantageous matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday.

SoFi Stadium has a covered roof and there should be a large contingent of Lions fans in attendance. Detroit's offensive line also does an excellent job in pass protection while the Chargers are below-average in pressure rate.

The Bolts have a mediocre defense that ranks 22nd in the league in EPA and 24th in dropback success. Although they are coming off a couple of strong performances, those came against some terrible offensive teams in the Jets and Bears. 

On the other side of the ball, Los Angeles has been underperforming. Justin Herbert is a talented quarterback but he's been inconsistent with his accuracy and it hasn't helped that his second and third-best receivers are injured. The Chargers have also been unable to find balance on offense since their inability to create holes (31st in the league in run-blocking per PFF) has led to just 3.9 yards per rush.

Although you're chasing the line movement at this point in the week, the spread has come down from that key number of 3 which makes this a good play on Detroit. 

My best bet: Lions -2.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

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Lions vs Chargers same-game parlay

Lions -2.5

Jared Goff Over 267.5 passing yards

Keenan Allen Over 6.5 receptions

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Goff has thrown for more than 270 yards in three straight games and the Chargers are last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (286.0). Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson prefers to attack the middle of the field and Goff ranks fifth in the league in EPA/play on throws over the middle according to TruMedia. Meanwhile, the Bolts are third-last EPA/play when defending against throws to that part of the field. 

Detroit's defense has made strides this season but the Lions still struggle in the back end, especially at cornerback. That should mean plenty of opportunities for Keenan Allen, who has logged at 7+ catches in five of his last seven games and will get even more targets with the Chargers missing Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Lions vs Chargers spread and Over/Under analysis

The line for this game has seen plenty of movement, with the Chargers initially installed as short 1.5-point home faves on the look-ahead line. Money has been steadily pouring in on the road team, with this line moving to a pick'em by the weekend and then opening at Lions -1.5 after the Chargers' latest win on Monday Night Football. 

Handle and tickets have continued to be all over the Lions and that line has moved to the key number of -3 by Wednesday before buyback on the Bolts shifted it to -2.5. The Lions are fresh off a bye after beating the Raiders in Week 8 to improve to 5-1 straight up and against the spread in their last six games. 

The Chargers are on a short week after beating the Jets 27-6 on Monday night. Despite that lopsided result, the Bolts didn't look good in that contest with their offense generating just 191 yards while their defense benefited from three fumbles.

Lions vs Chargers betting trend to know

The Lions have gone 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Chargers.

Lions vs Chargers game info

Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Date: Sunday, November 12, 2023
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Opening odds: Lions -1.5, 48.5 O/U

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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