Lamar Jackson Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

Lamar Jackson has missed practices in back-to-back weeks due to knee and back issues, which will limit him on Thursday Night Football vs. the Bengals. With Derrick Henry on the roster, there's no reason for Lamar to let it loose.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Nov 6, 2024 • 11:16 ET • 4 min read
Lamar Jackson Derrick Henry NFL Baltimore Ravens
Photo By - Imagn Images.

Thursday Night Football for NFL Week 10 sees the Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.

I’ve taken a long look at Lamar Jackson odds and his specific markets at various sportsbooks to find the very best ways for you to get involved with the Ravens QB and NFL picks on Thursday, November 7.

Lamar Jackson TNF player prop picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Lamar Jackson TNF prop pick

My best bet
Lamar Jackson Under 49.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)

My analysis

John Harbaugh confirmed that Lamar Jackson will be under center for the Baltimore Ravens come kickoff on Thursday night. However, the former MVP isn’t fully healthy after missing Tuesday’s practice with a knee injury after losing two practices last week with knee and back issues.

The team has been very quiet about his health but the data from Sunday’s win over the Broncos tells us something isn’t right. Jackson had just three carries, his lowest total of the season so far.

The Ravens still put 41 points on the Broncos with Derrick Henry shouldering the workload on the ground while Jackson was incredibly efficient through the air with 280 yards, three touchdowns, and a perfect 158.3 passer rating.

Henry's presence means the team doesn’t need to rely on Jackson’s legs as much as in years past. It’s a great threat to have but if Jackson isn’t totally fit, then he doesn’t need to force the issue. 

If you look back across the past four games, he’s only exceeded that total once anyway.

We can’t be 100% sure of how he’s feeling but the talk around the organization is minimal and there’s probably a reason for that. The addition of Henry to the roster gives us confidence that if Jackson is banged up, and it certainly seems like he is, then the team will be happy to let him have more of a pocket passer role and let Henry earn those hard yards on the ground.

Lamar Jackson TNF same-game parlay

Lamar Jackson Under 49.5 rushing yards

Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing TDs

Mark Andrews anytime TD

In addition to our best Lamar Jackson player prop for the game, we’re also going to back the NFL MVP odds front-runner to have Over 1.5 passing touchdowns.

We saw against the Broncos that Jackson and the Ravens were happy to let him use his arm with Henry taking the bulk of the carries. Jackson ended up with three touchdown passes last week, which means that he’s had two or more passing touchdowns in five of the last six games, getting 17 scores in that time.

We’re also going to back Mark Andrews to find the end zone.  The win over the Broncos was the first time since Week 5 in which he didn’t score. After a slow start to the season, he’s been far more involved and with the Bengals giving up five TDs to tight ends already this season, he has to be one of the favorites to score.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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