The first game of this year’s Divisional Round is on Saturday and it’s a tasty clash between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs. For a while last weekend it looked like we’d see the Chargers playing this Saturday, but a Trevor Lawrence-inspired squad bounced back to cause a huge shock.
Last week we saw the best and worst of Jacksonville's young quarterback, but could he take his team one step further and really make a statement? Don’t miss our NFL prop picks for the Jaguars vs. Chiefs, and be sure to check out Rohit Ponnaiya's full betting preview before the action gets underway.
Jaguars vs Chiefs prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Looking to bet on some NFL action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence to both pass for 250+ yards BOOSTED to +175 (was +120) at FanDuel! Bet Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Jaguars vs Chiefs Divisional Round props
Pacheco stays integral
The Jaguars did a good job of shutting down Austin Ekeler in the Chargers’ ground game for large parts of last weekend’s win. With the threat of Patrick Mahomes, it’s going to be a lot harder to scheme against the run game here, which could be of benefit to Isiah Pacheco.
I’m not the biggest fan of the Chiefs' running back, but he should be able to get some yardage on the ground. His line sits at 55.5 rushing yards, and the last time out in Week 18 he managed to get 64 yards on the ground on just eight carries. In that game, we saw Ronald Jones out carry him (+500 to score a touchdown if you’re feeling risky), but it’s hard to see Pacheco not getting the work in this game.
Pacheco has become a key part of this offense and has exceeded 55.5 rushing yards in eight of his last nine games for Kansas City, including an 82-yard performance when these two met in mid-November.
With the Chiefs likely taking a lead in this game you can expect to see them lean on the run, and this line looks like a given.
Isiah Pacheco Prop: Over 55.5 rushing yards (-108)
I have a confession, I’m a Kadarius Toney truther, but don’t let that get in the way of the great +225 you can get on the former Florida man to score here. He’s only had 14 receptions with the Chiefs and has turned that into two touchdowns. Likewise, the five carries he’s had have seen him find the endzone once.
Toney has his faults but at his best, he’s a brilliant addition to any offense and his unique skillset matchup makes him a nightmare for defenses. The fact that Andy Reid saw enough in him to bring him to Arrowhead should be evidence enough, but he will be extremely dangerous in the playoffs.
Two of his touchdowns have come in the Chiefs’ past three games and it’s clear that while he may not be used a lot, he will be used in key situations and as such he will be used to take advantage of mismatches in Jacksonville's defense.
Kadarius Toney Prop: Anytime touchdown (+225)
Lawrence lays down the law
With the greatest of respect to the Jaguars' defense and to skill players like Travis Etienne and Christian Kirk, there is only one reason why they're here in the divisional round and that’s Trevor Lawrence.
We’ll save talking about his incredible turnaround this year because it’s already well-known enough, but needless to say, Lawrence can be Jacksonville's difference maker, and it’ll trust his arm to take it to the Conference Championship game.
Last week, Lawrence’s four touchdowns came on 288 passing yards, with the team continuing to trust in his ability despite four picks. The passing yard line for Saturday sits at 250.5, and given that the Jaguars will (at least according to the bookies) be playing from behind, it makes sense to back the passer.
The Chiefs have allowed an average of 221 passing yards per game all season long and given that the season is on the line, and he’s one of the best passers in the league (it’s true), then you have to think Lawrence should surpass 250.5 passing yards.
Trevor Lawrence Prop: Over 250.5 passing yards (-114)