Jaguars vs Chargers Week 3 Picks and Predictions: Engram Goes Over Against L.A. Defense

Both sides come into this matchup with a 1-1 record and Jacksonville looks extremely confident. Coming off of a big win, our NFL betting picks will zone in on Evan Engram to do some damage against a Chargers defense that has struggled.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Sep 25, 2022 • 08:32 ET • 4 min read
Evan Engram Jacksonville Jaguars NFL
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On Sunday, two 1-1 teams meet when the Jacksonville Jaguars travel to California to face the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 3 action. This is a battle of two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL and we’ve seen plenty from both of them already this season.

Justin Herbert is arguably amongst the very elite in the NFL right now and Trevor Lawrence, the former No. 1 overall pick, is showing the talent that saw him drafted that high.

Check out our NFL betting picks and predictions for the Jaguars vs. Chargers. 

Jaguars vs Chargers best odds

Jaguars vs Chargers picks and predictions

Sunday’s meeting between the Jaguars and Chargers at SoFi Stadium will rightly be all about the quarterbacks, but a certain tight end may make the most noise. Every year there’s one TE that comes from seemingly nowhere and has a Top 5 season — to the delight of certain fantasy managers.

In this game we have one of those: enter Evan Engram.

If you’ve been following the NFL for the duration of his career you may have been burned by the former Giants’ star. Since arriving in Jacksonville, he’s talked a good game but his performances through two weeks indicate that he could become a key figure in this evolving offense. 

He’s only put up 74 yards across both games and is yet to find the endzone, but all the signs are pointing to a breakout game soon, which bodes well when his receiving line sits at 35.5 yards for this game in Los Angeles.

Across both games this season, he’s hauled in 11 of his 12 targets, and in Week 2 he has 27% of target share, ran 1.77 yards per route, and had 85% route participation. That’s elite-level route participation and puts him comfortably in the Top 10 at his position. Indeed the 26.67% of team targets is only behind Tyler Higbee and Mark Andrews for tight ends.

The stats tell you one thing and the eye test back its up. Against the Colts he stiff-armed Stephon Gilmore to the flow and got a first down, showing the ability that he has. He’s a player who has had false dawns throughout the past few years but he may just have found a home in which he can really thrive.

Now he has a relatively low line of 35.5 receiving yards against the Chargers who gave up 51 yards for Travis Kelce last week and 79 yards for Darren Waller the week before. Interestingly they’ve allowed big plays for TE, with Waller averaging 19.8 yards per catch and 10.2 for Kelce. 

Given the number of targets that Engram is getting, we can expect big production against the Chargers with him going Over 35.5 receiving yards.

My best bet: Evan Engram Over 35.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

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Jaguars vs Chargers betting preview

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Spread analysis Over/Under analysis Trend to know Game info Injuries Weather

Spread analysis

Los Angeles comes into Sunday’s game as 7-point favorites over the Jaguars. There has been some speculation around whether Justin Herbert will suit up which is why the line took longer to appear than usual this week.

Brandon Staley is insisting that he’s going to “see how it goes” with regards to Herbert playing, but it’s notable that the Jaguars DC Mike Caldwell is expecting to see the former Oregon man play. There’s no doubt that the rib injury will inhibit Herbert but he performed admirably with it at the end of the Chiefs defeat and he doesn’t look too bothered by it in training this week.

Both teams come into this 1-1 but you have to take into account the difference in schedule. The Chargers have faced the Chiefs and Raiders which looks far tougher than the 2022 version of the Colts and the Commanders, which we’ve seen Jacksonville face. 

What has been impressive for the Jaguars has been their offense, which has put up 46 points across both games and has seen what looks like a leap for Trevor Lawrence — who has started to showcase some of the play we saw at Clemson that led to him being taken first overall last year.

Given the questionable health around Herbert, it makes this game a tough one to call and one I’d probably leave well alone.

Over/Under analysis

We’ve mentioned Jacksonville putting up 46 points this season so far and how it's been dynamic with the ball. The Chargers have managed 48 points this year and Herbert even threw a touchdown pass to Joshua Palmer last week with the injury. After a week of healing, and better protection around the rib, you’d think he could perform well.

The line sits at 47.5 and if both offenses explode we could see that passed. The Over is 6-1 in the Chargers' past seven games on field turf and 6-1 in their past seven games following a loss.

Not only that but the Over is 5-1 in their past six meetings and 5-0 in the past five meetings in L.A. I don’t have a hard lean either way but the trends do point towards the Over.

Jaguars vs Chargers betting trend to know

The Over is 6-1 in the Chargers' past seven games on FieldTurf. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Chargers.

Jaguars vs Chargers game info

Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Date: Sunday, September 25, 2022
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET

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Jaguars vs Chargers weather

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