Jaguars vs Buccaneers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 16: Targeting an Undervalued Baker Prop

The Jacksonville Jaguars will look to stop a freefall in the AFC following their third loss in a row last week as they hit the highway to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday with Trevor Lawrence questionable with a concussion.  

Baker Mayfield is trying to lead the Bucs to a division title and has a great passing matchup this week, but with more passing comes more scramble opportunities, and with a 10-week low on his rushing total, should bettors be backing the veteran’s legs?

I break down the NFL Week 16 odds and offer my free NFL picks for Jaguars at Buccaneers on December 24. 

Jaguars vs Buccaneers odds

Jaguars vs Buccaneers predictions

Baker Mayfield’s rushing total has closed at 10.5 in every game over the quarterback’s last 10 contests. He's 4-6 O/U over that stretch but Baker has 51 carries over his 14 games for 152 yards and is running the ball at the highest frequency of his career. 

THE BLITZ is calling this one of the best +EV plays of the game. The profitable model has Mayfield for 14.63 yards and only four other defenses allow more QB rushing yards per game than the Jacksonville Jaguars at 24.1 per game.

Lamar Jackson put up an 11-week high of 97 rushing yards last week vs. the Jags, Jake Browning had 22 rushing yards three games ago, and CJ Stroud had a season-high 47 yards the week before that.

This could also be a higher pass-volume spot for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jacksonville is a much better rush defense than a pass defense and the injuries to the secondary (two starters questionable) are areas Tampa can attack with success.

The Bucs are still one of the worst rushing teams in football, ranking dead last in yards per carry at 3.5, so leaning on the pass is probable. There's also a chance that Lawrence plays and Tampa goes from a favorite to an underdog which should also increase the pass rate in theory. 

An increase in pass rate is always good for QB rushing Overs. Scrambling is the biggest volume-getter for yards on the ground and more passes mean more scramble opportunities. Baker has 154 scramble yards on the season over 25 runs and 7.3% of the designed runs.  

If his rushing attempts market opens at 2.5, that would be an even better play as low as -135 and one I'd bet up to 3.5 at anything plus money. 

My best bet: Baker Mayfield Over 7.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Jaguars vs Buccaneers same-game parlay

Baker Mayfield Over 7.5 rushing yards

Over 40.5

Cade Otton Over 22.5 receiving yards

+425 at bet365

There's still a chance Lawrence plays and if he does, this total will move closer to 44. I still like this Over even with Beathard as both passing offenses have good matchups with injuries hitting both secondaries.

Cade Otton is coming off a 90% snap share with an 82% route share. His opportunities are always there as he doesn't come off the field. He has 40+ receiving yards in 50% of his last 10 games so his alternate Overs are in play as well.  

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Jaguars vs Buccaneers spread and Over/Under analysis

Tampa Bay was +2.5 on the look-ahead but has swung to a -2.5 as Trevor Lawrence is questionable heading into the weekend and has yet to clear concussion protocol as of Friday.

T-Law is worth around five points to this spread so if he does clear and can play, this line will swing back in Jacksonville's favor.

Head coach Doug Pederson told ESPN if Lawrence can’t clear protocol by Saturday afternoon when the Jags leave for Tampa, he won’t be traveling with the team and it will be CJ Beathard getting the ball.

Beathard has yet to start this year but is 12-for-14 for just 77 yards, no touchdowns, and no picks. This current line of Tampa -2.5 is indicating a Beathard start and the total has fallen from a look-ahead of 44.5 to as low as 40.5 as of Friday.

The weather is going to be better in Florida this weekend with 10-mph winds, no rain, and 75-degree temperatures. 

The Jaguars are also dealing with more injuries than just their starting QB. Starting corner Tyson Campbell and starting safety Andre Cisco are questionable and true game-time decisions. Campbell has missed two straight games while Cisco missed last week’s loss to the Ravens. 

Those are key members of this defense as Tampa has been one of the worst running teams in football over the last two years and will have to move the ball through the air. Jacksonville possibly missing two starters in the secondary is good news for the Over.

Jacksonville currently ranks 30th in success rate vs. the pass since Week 10 and the Bucs are a Top-10 passing team with healthy receivers which is something they haven’t been able to say all year. Tampa corner Antoine Winfield Jr. is also questionable. 

If Lawrence is a go, my first move would be getting on this Over at 40.5. I like both passing games and even if Lawrence sits, Beathard might be undervalued in this spot — even without Zay Jones — leading to a little value on the current 40.5 total. Beathard is a veteran with starts under his belt and has been with the organization for three seasons. 

There have been a lot of backups starting this year and bettors and oddsmakers might be undervaluing them consistently. Jake Browning and Joe Flacco are names that come to mind. 

Both offenses have also improved on their red-zone numbers over the last three games as both clubs are getting TDs in the RZ at 66% or better over that stretch which puts them in the Top 10 in the league. 

There's a lot of receiving talent in this game and if Lawrence plays, watch for the total to get closer to that look-ahead number of 44.5. I like this Over at 40.5 with Beathard as he has experience and familiarity with the offense.  

Jaguars vs Buccaneers betting trend to know

The Buccaneers have scored last in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.05 units / 30% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Buccaneers.

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