Monday Night Football closes out Week 4 with an NFC South battle between Atlanta and New Orleans, and our Falcons vs. Saints computer picks are targeting eight player props for tonight's matchup.
From Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London to Tyler Shough and Alvin Kamara, we're comparing the Covers prop projections against the probabilities available at Kalshi. Check out our latest NFL picks for more analysis across the league.
Falcons vs Saints computer picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Falcons |
 Saints |
|---|---|
| Michael Penix o30.5 passing attempts 52% |
Tyler Shough u23.5 completions 48% |
| Drake London anytime touchdown 39% |
Alvin Kamara o39.5 rushing yards 46% |
| Drake London o79.5 receiving yards 51% |
Tyler Shough anytime touchdown 24% |
| Kyle Pitts o24.5 receiving yards 60% |
Juwan Johnson o39.5 receiving yards 55% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Falcons computer picks
Michael Penix Jr. Over 30.5 passing attempts (52%)
Projection: 33.64 passing attempts
Michael Penix Jr. looked comfortable in his return to the lineup, completing 18 of 25 passes for 256 yards against Green Bay. Our model expects Atlanta to put a little more on his plate Monday, projecting more than three attempts above this number in what could turn into a back-and-forth indoor matchup.
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Drake London anytime touchdown (39%)
Projection: 0.52 touchdowns
The Penix-Drake London connection picked up right where it left off when Atlanta's quarterback returned, with London hauling in nine of 10 targets for 194 yards against Green Bay. That kind of usage should keep him heavily involved around the goal line, and a projection north of half a touchdown makes the 39% Kalshi probability worth a look.
Drake London Over 79.5 receiving yards (51%)
Projection: 84.82 receiving yards
London's monster showing against Green Bay reinforced just how high his ceiling is with Penix under center. He's also topped 100 receiving yards in six of their last seven games together, and our projection gives him more than five yards of breathing room above tonight's 79.5-yard line.
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Kyle Pitts Over 24.5 receiving yards (60%)
Projection: 36.10 receiving yards
This is the biggest projection edge among Atlanta's yardage markets. Kyle Pitts Sr. needs only 25 yards to cash the Over, while our model has him clearing that mark by more than 11 yards, giving him plenty of room even if London continues to command most of Penix's attention.
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Saints computer picks
Tyler Shough Under 23.5 completions (48%)
Projection: 22.58 completions
There's not a huge cushion, but the model lands Tyler Shough just below his 23.5-completion line. He's been playing at a high level through three starts, so this Under likely needs his recent passing volume to cool off a bit rather than a poor performance from the Saints quarterback.
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Alvin Kamara Over 39.5 rushing yards (46%)
Projection: 44.62 rushing yards
Travis Etienne's move to injured reserve should put more of the backfield workload on Alvin Kamara, which helps offset a difficult matchup against an Atlanta defense that has been elite against the run. Our model still has Kamara getting to the mid-40s, giving him roughly five yards of clearance over this line.
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Tyler Shough anytime touchdown (24%)
Projection: 0.34 touchdowns
Shough has already shown he can make things happen when New Orleans gets near the goal line, and our touchdown projection is noticeably more optimistic than the 24% probability available at Kalshi. At that price, his anytime touchdown market offers an intriguing way to back the Saints quarterback to contribute with his legs.
Juwan Johnson Over 39.5 receiving yards (55%)
Projection: 43.94 receiving yards
Juwan Johnson has carved out an important role in the New Orleans passing game and remains one of Shough's more dangerous targets around the red zone. The yardage edge is modest, but our projection still puts him more than four yards above this number in a matchup where the Saints may need to lean on the pass.
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