The NFC South is guaranteed another .500 team before Week 4 ends when the 1-2 New Orleans Saints host the 1-2 Atlanta Falcons as 2.5-point favorites in the Big Easy tonight.
With New Orleans battling injuries at linebacker, and Michael Penix Jr. finding his footing under center, my Falcons vs. Saints predictions see Atlanta marching into the Superdome and beating its division rival for the third straight time.
However, it's a Drake London Falcons vs. Saints props play that stands out as the best value to me.
Here are my favorite NFL picks for this Monday Night Football showdown, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Falcons vs Saints prediction: Falcons +2.5
Michael Penix gets extra rest and ranked top 4 among quarterbacks in EPA per dropback last week, while the cluster of injuries to the New Orleans Saints’ linebackers could be a major problem for the 2.5-point favorite. I’m backing the Atlanta Falcons on the spread Monday, with THE BLITZ giving Atlanta a near coin-flip chance to win at 48.9%.
The Saints were already allowing 27.7 points per game, which ranks 26th, and sit 31st in success rate. Now they have to slow a rejuvenated Atlanta offense with competent quarterback play while potentially missing their entire starting linebacker unit and some depth. On Thursday, Kaden Ellis, Pete Werner, Carl Granderson, and Anfernee Jennings were all DNPs. Ellis, Werner, and Jennings account for 62% of all Saints linebacker snaps this year.
Bijan Robinson is coming off a 200-plus-yard game with two touchdowns against the Packers on Thursday. He could do similar damage against a thin New Orleans defense indoors. The Saints were already an average missed-tackle team and still rank 31st in success rate against the run.
Look for the Falcons to control the ball and lean on the better defense. Atlanta ranks third in defensive success rate.
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Falcons vs Saints combo
It’s an indoor game with competent quarterback play and enough defensive injuries to create scoring opportunities. The Saints have shown they can contribute to indoor Overs even when they start slowly, ranking fourth in second-half points per game at 18.7. Much like Atlanta, if this offense has to speed things up and play from behind, it can. A game featuring Chris Olave and Drake London has big-play potential for all 60 minutes, and that’s before even mentioning Bijan Robinson, who is coming off a 200-yard game.
Michael Penix and London have been nearly unstoppable when healthy together. London has cleared 100 receiving yards in six of the last seven games they’ve played together.
Juwan Johnson is a major red-zone threat and ranks near the top of the position in red-zone targets. The loss of Travis Etienne and the injury to Noah Fant only make his touchdown role even bigger.
Falcons vs Saints combo
- Over 47.5
- Drake London Over 79.5 receiving yards
- Juwan Johnson anytime touchdown
Falcons vs Saints touchdown scorer: Juwan Johnson
I got this at 3.3x and would play it down to 3x.
Juwan Johnson commanded 20% of the targets in a 40-plus-dropback outing last week, catching all eight of his targets and scoring twice. He has six red-zone targets and three touchdowns this year and ranks second at the position in targets inside the 20. Fellow tight end Noah Fant, who also scored twice last week, has been limited in practice this week.
Travis Etienne is injured, which could boost passing volume, and the Falcons rank in the bottom third of the league in touchdowns allowed to tight ends. Johnson has emerged as the No. 2 option in a passing offense that ranks third in passing yards per game.
TOP PICK
Falcons vs Saints player prop: Drake London 80+ receiving yards
It’s tough to ignore the chemistry between Michael Penix and Drake London. The wide receiver saw 10 targets last week on a short week and turned them into a monster nine-catch, 194-yard performance. Over the last seven games these two have played together, London has topped 100 yards in all but one. He’s averaging 120 receiving yards per game with Penix getting him the ball.
London’s projection this week is 86 yards, and the market has already moved after opening at 72.5. It might be too late for that number, but the indoor setting, the potential pass-heavy game script as a road underdog, the Saints’ bottom-five success-rate defense against both the run and pass, and the cluster of linebacker injuries all have me looking at 80+ and his 100+ alternatives at 34%.
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COVERS INTEL: In the last seven games that Penix and London have played together, London has topped 100 receiving yards six times and is averaging 120 yards per game.
Falcons vs Saints odds tonight
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- Spread: Falcons +1.5 | Saints -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (52%) | Under 47.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Falcons 48% | Saints 52%
- Top picks: 3-5, -2.2 units
- Combos: 0-3, -3 units
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Falcons vs Saints weather
This is an indoor game.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Falcons vs Saints trend to know
The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Saints.
How to watch Falcons vs Saints tonight
| Location | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 5, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Falcons vs Saints latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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