Falcons vs Ravens Week 16 Picks and Predictions: Offensive Struggles Clear Path to Under

Baltimore finds itself with a real issue having to turn to its third-string QB after Huntley was injured. Meanwhile, Atlanta has turned to its rookie Desmond Ridder, and our NFL betting picks think this is a perfect formula for the Under.

Last Updated: Dec 24, 2022 8:13 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Desmond Ridder Atlanta Falcons NFL
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Week 16 offers a non-conference NFL clash between the 5-9 Atlanta Falcons and 9-5 Baltimore Ravens. 

Both teams enter Saturday coming off of a loss. Atlanta is hoping to shake a three-game losing streak, while Baltimore suffered a 13-3 loss to the Cleveland Browns.

Who will win this NFL tilt? Find out in our free NFL betting picks and predictions for the Falcons vs. Ravens on Saturday, December 24.

Falcons vs Ravens best odds

Falcons vs Ravens picks and predictions

The total for Saturday’s contest is 35.5 points, and my best bet is for this game to end Under the oddsmakers’ number.

The Desmond Ridder era began last week in Atlanta, and his NFL debut was less than spectacular. Ridder completed 50% of his passes for 97 yards with an additional 38 rushing yards. It was less than spectacular, as the Falcons scored 18 points en route to dropping their third-straight contest.

In fairness to Ridder, the Falcons' offensive line is banged-up, and wideouts Drake London and Olamide Zaccheaus are talented but trying to find their way. TE Kyle Pitts is out for the season, and if it weren’t for RBs Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier, the Falcons' offense would be non-existent.

Ridder and the Falcons' offense won’t have it easy Saturday. Baltimore is eighth in defensive DVOA and has allowed 36 points over its previous three contests. Atlanta doesn’t protect its QB, and Baltimore has 42 sacks this season, spelling disaster for Falcons' side that have a hard time putting points on the board. 

Baltimore will likely make the playoffs, but it is hurting. QBs Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley are both injured, and their status' is unknown for Saturday. Tight end Mark Andrews is the only passing weapon the Ravens have now that WR Devin Devourney is out with a broken foot, but RB J.K. Dobbins is healthy and has rushed for 225 yards over the last two games.

The Falcons are one of the best defensive teams and have allowed 59 points over their previous three matchups. Baltimore needs a real offensive threat other than Jackson, and the Ravens have scored 29 points over their last three games.

Saturday features two sputtering offenses against defenses that are playing well. Baltimore plays a lockdown defense that is difficult to score on, and Ridder doesn’t have the weapons to have an impact against the Ravens. Baltimore has injuries to its QBs, but even if Jackson dresses, he just has Dobbins and Andrews, and Atlanta will get enough stops to keep the Ravens from scoring. Play the Under in this one. 

My best bet: Under 35.5 (-107 at PointsBet)

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Falcons vs Ravens spread analysis

Baltimore is a -7.5 favorite, but I’m leaning toward it to cover the spread.

The Ravens have struggled without Jackson in the lineup and scored three points in their Week 15 loss to the Cleveland Browns. Huntley didn’t have the impact the team hoped for, and the result is 29 points and a 1-2 ATS record in their last three games.

Atlanta is 8-6 ATS but 2-3 ATS over its last five. Taking the Falcons to cover is more about what Baltimore hasn’t been doing than anything Atlanta does or doesn’t do.

The Falcons are ninth in red zone efficiency, while the Ravens are 29th. Baltimore's offense doesn’t score the football, and Atlanta can score with them.

The nature of these offenses doesn't allow for many big plays, and in a slog of a game this should be, it's always better to take the points. 

Falcons vs Ravens Over/Under analysis

I like the Under as my best bet for this game, and I have some additional notes for you.

Atlanta is 19th in turnover margin facing the third-best Ravens.

Ravens' rookie QB Anthony Brown replaced Huntley toward the end of last week's game against Cleveland, throwing for 16 yards, getting sacked once, and wasn’t much different than Huntley. 

Atlanta is 15th in scoring against the 16th-ranked Ravens scoring offense, and The Falcons' O/U is 6-8 to the Under while Baltimore's is 4-10. 

Falcons vs Ravens betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Ravens.

Falcons vs Ravens game info

Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Date: Saturday, December 24, 2022
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Ravens -7.5, 35.5

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