Falcons vs Commanders Week 12 Picks and Predictions: Atlanta's Offense Gets Stuffed

Washington has found new life with Taylor Heinicke taking over for an injured Wentz, and now it faces off against the Falcons. With the Commanders' rush defense looking strong, our NFL betting picks are siding with them to take down Atlanta.

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Nov 27, 2022 • 08:22 ET • 4 min read

Week 12 moves into Sunday and holds an intriguing NFC matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Washington Commanders.  

Atlanta is coming off an impressive 27-24 home win over the Chicago Bears, while Washington defeated Houston for its second consecutive victory. 

Who will win this NFC matchup? Find out in our free NFL betting picks and predictions for the Falcons vs. Commanders on November 27. 

Falcons vs Commanders best odds

Falcons vs Commanders picks and predictions

Washington has won four of its last five and is my best bet to cover the -4.

Atlanta is third in the NFL in rushing yards per game, and running the football is what it does. However, stopping the rush is the Commanders' bread and butter, and without the rush, the Falcons have a hard time moving the football.

Falcons' quarterback Marcus Mariota also depends on running the football — scampering for 372 yards and four TDs. Mariota throws when he has to and has slung it for 1,878 yards with 13 TDs and seven miscues. The passing game took a hit with TE Kyle Pitts hitting the IR, and he’ll face a Washington defense ranked 12th in passing yards allowed while surrendering 1.6 TD receptions per contest.

Stopping the Falcons' ground attack is paramount for success, and once the Commanders do, the Washington offense should be able to take care of the rest against an Atlanta side ranked 28th in defensive DVOA.

Washington is 4-1 since Taylor Heinicke replaced injured starter Carson Wentz, and the Old Dominion grad has thrown for 1,031 yards with five TDs and four interceptions. He has capable hands to throw to in wideouts Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel, while TE Logan Thomas and WR Jahan Dotson have shined. They face a Falcons defense allowing the 29th most passing yards and 1.5 TD receptions per game.

Commanders RBs Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson are solid. Robinson gets more rushing attempts, but Gibson leads the team in yards and is third in receptions. Atlanta allows 123 rushing yards per game, and the backfield tandem should eat against the Falcons.

Washington stops the run, and they stop Atlanta. Mariota is a competent passer, but the Falcons aren’t built to move the ball through the air. He’ll face a similar situation Sunday against the Commanders. Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier won’t find running the ball easy against a stout Washington interior defense.

The Commanders' offense isn’t prolific, but it's multi-faceted and dependable with Heinicke under center. Robinson and Gibson should eat against the soft Falcons' rushing defense, and an Atlanta secondary prone to giving up big plays could get burned deep a couple of times. The Falcons' defense will get their stops, but Washington should do enough offensively to win this game and cover the spread. 

My best bet: Commanders -4 (-110 at FanDuel)

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Falcons vs Commanders spread analysis

Nearly a year ago, Commanders DE Chase Young tore his ACL, but he could return Sunday. He’ll be on a snap count, but will still add a major boost to a defense ranked 13th in sacks. Mariota has been sacked 26 times, and the Commanders could add to that total.

Atlanta ranks 28th in defensive DVOA and has allowed 24 points or more in four of its last five. Washington has scored at least 17 points in the previous five and 55 over its past two victories.

The Falcons are 7-4 against the spread and 3-2 ATS as the away team facing a Commanders side with a 6-4-1 ATS mark and 2-2-1 ATS at FedExField.

Falcons vs Commanders Over/Under analysis

The total is 40.5, and I’m leaning Under for this matchup.

Neither offense is explosive, and both sides rely on the rushing attack to move the chains. Washington leads the league in time of possession — Atlanta is 26th — which doesn’t suggest a high-scoring affair, especially if Atlanta runs the football for 26 of their usual 28 minutes of offense per contest.

Both offenses are ranked 25th and below in total offense. The Washington defense is much better than the Atlanta offense, but the Commanders' offense sometimes stalls, which doesn’t bode well for scoring points.

Atlanta has a -1 turnover differential with the Commanders just one turnover better. The Over is 6-5 through the Falcons' 11 games and 3-2 as the away team, and Washington is 4-7 to the Under and the Over is 2-3 at FedExField this season. 

Falcons vs Commanders betting trend to know

The Commanders are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Commanders.

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Falcons vs Commanders game info

Location: FedExField, Landover, MD
Date: Sunday, November 27, 2022
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Commanders -3, 43 O/U

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